1461 Trabzon - Serik Belediyespor prediction 3 October 2026

1461 Trabzon vs Serik Belediyespor prediction for the 2 Lig match on October 3, 2026, at 12:30. Based on our analysis of odds, form, and head-to-head record, Serik Belediyespor has a 35% chance of winning, while 1461 Trabzon has a 30% chance, and the draw is at 35%. It's a tightly balanced contest with the visitors holding a slight edge.

Team Form

1461 Trabzon's last five matches: W, D, L, L, L. They beat 12 Bingolspor 2-1 away on Sep 27, drew 2-2 at home with Ankara Demirspor on Sep 20, lost 1-0 at Yeni 52 Orduspor on Sep 13, lost 3-2 at home to Sakaryaspor on Sep 6, and lost 5-4 at home to Menemen Belediyespor on Apr 25. The home side has struggled defensively, conceding 12 goals in those five games.

Serik Belediyespor's last five: L, D, W, L, W. They lost 1-0 at home to Fethiyespor on Sep 27, drew 1-1 away at Ankaragucu on Sep 19, beat Inegolspor 2-1 at home on Sep 13, lost 3-1 away at Boluspor on May 1, and beat Hatayspor 4-2 at home on Apr 25. Their form is slightly more consistent, with two wins in the last five.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, both sides have won twice and drawn once. Overall, Serik Belediyespor leads the head-to-head with 3 wins to 1461 Trabzon's 2, and 1 draw. The most recent clash on Dec 20, 2023, ended 2-2. Earlier, 1461 Trabzon won 2-1 away on Apr 9, 2023, and 1-0 at home on Oct 29, 2022. Serik won 2-0 away on Apr 14, 2019, and 1-0 at home on Nov 25, 2018.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the top 12 of the 2 Lig overall standings, suggesting both are in the lower half of the table. The available data shows Sakaryaspor leading with 12 points from 4 games. 1461 Trabzon and Serik Belediyespor are likely mid‑table or lower, with no significant gap in points based on the missing positions.

Win Probability: 1461 Trabzon or Serik Belediyespor?

We calculated the probabilities by taking the average implied odds from five bookmakers (home 3.10–2.50, draw 2.15–3.40, away 2.90–2.40) and adjusting for recent form, head‑to‑head balance, and home advantage. The raw odds implied a 31.4% home win, 35.1% draw, and 33.5% away win. After factoring in 1461 Trabzon's poor home form (D, L, L in last three at home) and Serik's slightly better overall results, we adjusted to:

• 1461 Trabzon win: 30%
• Draw: 35%
• Serik Belediyespor win: 35%

Serik Belediyespor is the narrow favorite, but the draw is equally likely. 1461 Trabzon's home advantage is offset by their recent struggles.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very open match. The best odds available are: home win 3.10, draw 3.40, away win 2.90. The draw is priced as the most likely single outcome by some bookies, while others slightly favor the away side. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a draw or a narrow Serik Belediyespor win. The match is likely to be close, with both teams capable of scoring.