2 de Mayo - Sportivo Ameliano prediction 12 October 2026

The 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano prediction for October 12, 2026, at 21:00 in Paraguay's Primera Division points to an away-favored matchup. Based on league standings, head-to-head record, and recent form, Sportivo Ameliano holds a 45% win probability, while 2 de Mayo sits at 25% and the draw at 30%.

Team Form

2 de Mayo enter this fixture with inconsistent results. In their last five matches, they have recorded two wins, one draw and two losses (W, D, L, L, W). During this span, they scored 6 goals and conceded 8. Away at Cerro Porteno they won 2-0, drew 2-2 at Rubio Nu, lost 3-0 at Nacional Asuncion, lost 0-2 at home to Club Libertad Asuncion, and won 2-1 at Sportivo San Lorenzo.

Sportivo Ameliano carries stronger momentum, unbeaten in their last four outings. Their last five results read L, D, D, W, W — a4-1 loss at home to Rubio Nu, followed by 1-1 draws at Nacional Asuncion and at Club Libertad Asuncion, a1-0 home win over Sportivo San Lorenzo, and a2-1 win at Sportivo Luqueno. They netted 6 goals and allowed 5 in those contests.

Head-to-Head Record

Over 10 previous meetings, the H2H record stands at2 de Mayo wins, 3 draws, and4 wins for Sportivo Ameliano. The most recent clash on August 1, 2026, ended in a1-1 draw at Sportivo Ameliano. Before that, Ameliano won 2-1 away in April 2026, won 3-0 at home in February 2026, while 2 de Mayo took a3-2 away victory in November 2025. The August 2025 encounter finished 1-1. Ameliano has won two of the last five with two draws, showing a slight edge.

League Table Positions

Sportivo Ameliano occupies 4th place with 33 points from 21 matches (8 wins, 9 draws, 4 losses). Their goal difference is +7 (26 scored, 19 conceded). 2 de Mayo is 10th with 22 points from 22 games (5 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses), a goal difference of -17 (18 scored, 35 conceded). The 11-point gulf and Ameliano's game in hand underscore the visitor’s superiority this season. Additionally, Ameliano’s away form ranks 3rd in the league with 17 points from 11 away matches (4W-5D-2L), while 2 de Mayo’s home record is outside the top eight.

Win Probability: 2 de Mayo or Sportivo Ameliano?

After weighting all available data — league position, home/away splits, recent form and H2H — the calculated outcomes are: Sportivo Ameliano win 45%, draw 30%, 2 de Mayo win 25%. The visitors’ far stronger league showing, robust away results (only two losses in 11 road games) and current unbeaten run give them a sizable advantage.2 de Mayo’s lowly home profile and defensive frailties (35 goals conceded overall) sharply reduce their chances.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific bookmaker odds were not available in the data set for this 2 de Mayo vs Sportivo Ameliano prediction. However, based on statistical analysis, the match aligns with an away-favored market. The data suggests Sportivo Ameliano is the more likely winner, but a draw cannot be ruled out given Ameliano’s nine draws this campaign and the 30% calculated draw probability. For betting tips, backing the away side to avoid defeat looks the safest route.