Molde - Aalesund prediction 19 September 2026
Molde
AalesundMolde
FredrikstadMoldeIK StartLillestromMoldeMoldeAalesundTrygg/LadeMoldeHam-KamMoldeMoldeKFUM OsloValerengaMoldeMoldeTromsoKristiansundMoldeMoldeSarpsborg 08KFUM OsloMoldeMoldeBrannAalesundMoldeRosenborgMoldeSarpsborg 08AalesundKristiansundAalesundAalesundSarpsborg 08MoldeAalesundFordeAalesundKFUM OsloAalesundAalesundIK StartVikingAalesundAalesundValerengaHam-KamAalesundAalesundTromsoAalesundVikingValerengaAalesundAalesundMoldeKristiansundAalesundMoldeAalesundAalesundMoldeAalesundMoldeMoldeAalesundAalesundMoldeMoldeAalesundAalesundMoldeAalesundMoldeMoldeAalesundAalesundMoldeMoldeAalesundAalesundMoldeMoldeAalesundMoldeAalesundAalesundMoldeMoldeAalesundAalesundMolde| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 24 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 62:23 | +39 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodo/Glimt | 24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 58:21 | +37 | 56 |
| 3 | Molde | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 57:36 | +21 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 46:31 | +15 | 40 |
| 5 |  Tromso | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 43:34 | +9 | 40 |
| 6 |  Lillestrom | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 35:33 | +2 | 39 |
| 7 |  Sarpsborg 08 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 30:35 | -5 | 31 |
| 8 |  KFUM Oslo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 30:39 | -9 | 30 |
| 9 |  Brann | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 42:40 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 |  Valerenga | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 39:46 | -7 | 29 |
| 11 |  Fredrikstad | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29:41 | -12 | 29 |
| 12 |  Ham-Kam | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 33:51 | -18 | 26 |
| 13 |  Sandefjord | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 22:31 | -9 | 24 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 40:53 | -13 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 25:49 | -24 | 20 |
| 16 |  IK Start | 24 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 26:54 | -28 | 19 |
Molde vs Aalesund Prediction (Sep 19)
The Molde vs Aalesund prediction points to a clear home favorite when these two Eliteserien sides meet on Sep 19, 2026, at 16:00. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Molde has a 62% chance of winning, while Aalesundโs win probability sits at just 15%. The draw is rated at 23%.
Team Form
Moldeโs recent home form is impressive. They have won four of their last five matches at Aker Stadion, scoring 15 goals in that run. The only blip was a 2-1 defeat at Kristiansund on Aug 09. Before that, they beat Tromso 3-2, Valerenga 4-3, KFUM Oslo 2-0, and Ham-Kam 5-1. This attacking output makes them a formidable opponent on their own turf.
Aalesundโs away form is inconsistent. In their last five outings (home and away combined), they managed one win, two draws, and two losses. The 2-0 home victory over IK Start on Sep 04 was a bright spot, but defeats to KFUM Oslo and Viking, plus a 5-5 thriller against Valerenga, highlight defensive vulnerabilities. On the road, they have struggled to keep clean sheets.
Head-to-Head Record
The overall head-to-head record heavily favors Molde: 11 wins to Aalesundโs 4, with only 1 draw in 16 previous meetings. In the last five encounters, Molde won three times, Aalesund once, and one ended level. The most recent clash, on Jul 11, 2026, finished 2-2 at Aalesund, but Molde had won the previous two Eliteserien fixtures by a combined 6-0 scoreline.
League Table Positions
Molde sit 4th in the Eliteserien standings with 33 points from 19 matches. Their home record is particularly strong: 3rd in the home table with 22 points from 10 games (7 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Aalesund are not in the top 12 of the overall table, indicating a significant gap in quality. The away table also omits Aalesund from the top eight, underlining their travel struggles.
Win Probability: Molde or Aalesund?
After normalizing the bookmaker odds to remove the margin, the baseline probabilities were 56% for a Molde win, 28% for the draw, and 16% for an Aalesund victory. Adjusting for Moldeโs dominant home form, Aalesundโs poor away record, and the historical head-to-head advantage, the final win probabilities are: Molde 62%, draw 23%, Aalesund 15%. Molde is the clear favorite to take all three points.
Odds & Match Prediction
The available pre-match odds show Molde as the strong favorite. One bookmaker lists a home win at 1.40, the draw at 2.78, and an away win at 4.95. Another offers 1.36, 2.90, and 5.00 respectively. Based on the stats, Moldeโs attacking firepower and home advantage should prove decisive. A home win is the most likely outcome, with over 2.5 total goals a real possibility given both teamsโ recent scoring records.
Molde vs Aalesund โ FAQ
- Who will win Molde vs Aalesund?
- Molde is the strong favorite with a 62% win probability. Aalesund has only a 15% chance of winning, while the draw is rated at 23%. These percentages are based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head data.
- What is the win probability for Molde?
- Molde has a 62% chance of winning this match. This figure is derived from the implied odds (1.40 for a home win) and adjusted upward due to their excellent home record and Aalesundโs low league position.
- When is the Molde vs Aalesund match?
- The match is scheduled for Sep 19, 2026, at 16:00 local time. It is an Eliteserien fixture and will be played at Aker Stadion in Molde, Norway.
- What are the odds for Molde vs Aalesund?
- Pre-match odds show Molde as the favorite. One bookmaker offers 1.40 for a home win, 2.78 for a draw, and 4.95 for an Aalesund win. Another lists 1.36, 2.90, and 5.00 respectively.
- What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Aalesund?
- In 16 previous meetings, Molde have won 11 times, Aalesund 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The last five encounters saw Molde win three, Aalesund win one, and one draw, including a 2-2 result in July 2026.