Pontypridd Town - Aberystwyth Town prediction 3 October 2026

This Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town prediction for Oct 3 focuses on the Cymru South match at 14:30. Based on the odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league table, Aberystwyth Town are slight favorites with a 36% win probability, Pontypridd Town are at 33%, and the draw is at 31%.

Team Form

Pontypridd Town's last five results are W, L, L, D, D. Their only win in that run came away at Caerphilly Athletic (2-1), while they lost 2-1 at Ynyshir Albions, lost 1-0 at home to Afan Lido, and drew 0-0 with Ynyshir Albions and Llantwit Major.

Aberystwyth Town's last five results are D, W, W, W, W. They drew 0-0 at home to Swansea University, won 3-2 away at Caerphilly Athletic, then beat Llanelli 4-0, Pontardawe Town 1-0, and Llantwit Major 5-1 at home.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head data shows Pontypridd Town with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 Aberystwyth Town wins. In the five recent meetings listed, Pontypridd won twice, Aberystwyth won once, and two games ended level.

• Dec 26 2025: Pontypridd Town 0-1 Aberystwyth Town (Cymru South)
• Aug 16 2025: Aberystwyth Town 0-0 Pontypridd Town (Cymru South)
• Dec 26 2023: Pontypridd Town 2-0 Aberystwyth Town (Premier League)
• Aug 29 2023: Aberystwyth Town 0-1 Pontypridd Town (Premier League)
• Apr 1 2023: Pontypridd Town 1-1 Aberystwyth Town (Premier League)

League Table Positions

In the Cymru South overall standings, Aberystwyth Town are 8th and Pontypridd Town are 9th, both with 16 points from 7 matches. Aberystwyth hold the better goal difference: 19 goals scored and 7 conceded (+12), compared with Pontypridd's 18 scored and 12 conceded (+6).

Win Probability: Pontypridd Town or Aberystwyth Town?

We calculate the match outcome probabilities as Pontypridd Town win 33%, draw 31%, Aberystwyth Town win 36%. The total equals 100%.

The available 1X2 odds imply a tight match; after normalizing the bookmaker numbers, the market sits roughly at 34.5% for Pontypridd, 31.6% for the draw, and 33.9% for Aberystwyth. We adjust slightly in Aberystwyth's favour because their last five form is D-W-W-W-W, they have the stronger goal difference, and they won the latest head-to-head meeting 1-0 at Pontypridd.

So, who will win Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town? Based on this data, Aberystwyth Town have the narrow edge, but this is an open Cymru South fixture and the draw remains a realistic outcome.

Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town Prediction & Odds

The 1X2 odds are 2.88 for Pontypridd Town, 2.28 for the draw, and 2.92 for Aberystwyth Town at one odds provider. Another set lists 2.35, 3.70, and 2.40, so bookmakers see very little between the teams.

Our final match prediction is that Aberystwyth Town are the slight selection on the back of their better form and goal difference. For betting tips, the draw is also worth considering because Pontypridd have produced two goalless draws in their recent run and the H2H record includes three draws.