Academica Coimbra - Benfica B prediction 13 September 2026

The Academica Coimbra vs Benfica B prediction for this Segunda Liga match on Sep 11, 2026 at 19:45 points to a tight contest. Based on our win probability analysis, Academica Coimbra has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Benfica B has a 25% chance. The home side are slight favorites, but the bookmakers' odds suggest a draw is the most likely single outcome.

Team Form

Academica Coimbra

Academica Coimbra's recent form shows a dip. They started the season with three straight wins: a 4-1 away victory at Chaves, a 1-0 home win against Feirense, and a 2-0 away win at Tondela. However, they have lost their last two matches: a 0-2 home defeat to Lusitania Lourosa and a 1-4 away loss to Penafiel. Their last five results read L, L, W, W, W.

Benfica B

Benfica B have also struggled lately. They began with a 1-0 home win over Leixoes and a 2-1 away win at Uniao Leiria, followed by a 1-1 home draw against Portimonense. Then came back-to-back losses: a 0-1 away defeat to Amarante and a 0-2 home loss to SCU Torreense. Their last five form string is L, L, D, W, W.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last 14 meetings between these sides, Academica Coimbra have won 5, Benfica B have won 4, and 5 have ended in draws. The most recent encounters are:

• Oct 23, 2021: Benfica B 3-1 Academica Coimbra
• May 16, 2021: Academica Coimbra 1-0 Benfica B
• Jan 16, 2021: Benfica B 2-2 Academica Coimbra
• Oct 5, 2019: Academica Coimbra 1-0 Benfica B

Academica have won both of their home H2H matches in this data set, giving them a psychological edge at home.

League Table Positions

Academica Coimbra sit 6th in the Segunda Liga with 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses; goals 8-7). Benfica B are 10th with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; goals 4-5). The home side holds a 3-point advantage and a superior goal difference. At home, Academica have played 2 games: 1 win and 1 loss. Benfica B's away record stands at 1 win and 1 loss from 2 trips.

Win Probability: Academica Coimbra or Benfica B?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows:

• Academica Coimbra: 40%
• Draw: 35%
• Benfica B: 25%

The base odds implied a very tight match, with the draw probability highest at 38.4% and home win at 35.5%. However, we adjusted these figures to reflect Academica's higher league position, home advantage, and a better head-to-head record at home. Both teams' recent form is a concern, but Academica have a slightly higher chance of securing three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds from bookmakers are:

• Academica Coimbra win: 2.29
• Draw: 2.12
• Benfica B win: 3.12

The lowest odds are on the draw, indicating that the market expects a stalemate. Our final prediction: based on the stats, Academica Coimbra are the more likely winners, but the draw is a very realistic outcome. A home win is the value pick given the circumstances.