Accrington Stanley - Salford City prediction 6 October 2026

Our Accrington Stanley vs Salford City prediction for the EFL Trophy match on Oct 6, 2026, at 19:00 gives Salford City a 40% win probability, with Accrington Stanley at 28% and a draw at 32%. Bookmakers also see the away side as the favourite, but the numbers suggest a tight contest.

Team Form

Accrington Stanley's last five matches show a mixed run: one win, three draws, and one defeat. They beat Cheltenham Town 2-0 at home on Oct 3, but before that they drew three in a row — 1-1 at Swindon Town, 3-3 at home to Sunderland U21 in this competition, and 0-0 at home to Newport County. A 2-1 loss at Barnet on Sep 12 completes the sequence.

Salford City arrive in stronger form with three wins, one draw, and one loss from their last five. They beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 at home on Oct 3, thrashed Oldham Athletic 4-1 away on Sep 26, and edged Swindon Town 1-0 at home on Sep 19. The only blip was a 2-1 home loss to Sheffield Wednesday in the EFL Trophy on Sep 22, while a 3-3 draw at Rotherham United on Sep 12 rounds off the run.

Head-to-Head Record

In eight previous meetings, the home side has won four times, with one draw and three away wins. The most recent clash was on Feb 5, 2026, when Accrington Stanley beat Salford City 1-0 at home. However, Salford won the previous encounter at Accrington 2-0 in December 2024, and also won 2-1 at home in August 2025. The overall H2H record points to a slight home advantage, but Salford have proven they can win on the road in this fixture.

Win Probability: Accrington Stanley or Salford City?

Based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Accrington Stanley win: 28%
• Draw: 32%
• Salford City win: 40%

Salford City are the most likely winner, driven by their superior recent results (three wins in five) and the bookmakers' odds, which imply a 41% chance after removing the margin. Accrington's home advantage and their 1-0 win in the last meeting at this ground lift their chances slightly above the raw odds, but their form of one win in five keeps them as underdogs. The draw probability is high because both teams have recorded multiple stalemates lately and the average draw odds are short.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' average odds across five major firms are: Accrington Stanley 3.42, Draw 2.67, Salford City 2.15. One bookmaker lists the match at 3.25 for a home win, 2.30 for the draw, and 2.25 for an away win. These prices confirm Salford as the favourite.

Based on the stats, Salford City are the more likely winners, but a draw is a very realistic outcome. Accrington Stanley will need to improve their consistency to take all three points. Our final prediction is a narrow away win or a score draw, with Salford having the edge in probability.