Hoogeveen - ACV Assen prediction 17 October 2026

Our ACV Assen vs Hoogeveen prediction for the KNVB Beker match on September 22, 2026 (19:00 local time) is that hosts ACV Assen have a 65% win probability. The draw stands at 23%, while Hoogeveen have just a 12% chance based on current odds and recent form.

Team Form

ACV Assen come into this cup tie in excellent shape. Their last five matches across all competitions have produced four wins and one draw (W-D-W-W-W). The most recent was a 5-1 home victory over Eemdijk in the Derde Divisie on September 12. Earlier results include a 1-1 draw with DVS 33 Ermelo, a 1-0 win against TEC, a 4-2 away win at Ijsselmeervogels and a 1-0 home success against Koninklijke HFC. Over those five games they scored 12 goals and conceded only 4, showing strong attacking and defensive performances.

Hoogeveen’s recent form is far less convincing. Their last five results are L-W-D-L-W. On September 19 they lost 0-2 at home to Excelsior 31, before that they won 4-1 away at DOVO on September 12. In the previous KNVB Beker round on September 2 they drew 1-1 at home with SV Zwaluwen Wierden. They also lost 1-3 at home to Purmersteijn and beat Genemuiden 2-1 in late May. That gives them only two wins in five, with defensive issues evident – they conceded eight goals in those matches.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head record between ACV Assen and Hoogeveen. This will be the first meeting on record between the two Dutch sides, so no direct history can be used to influence the prediction.

Win Probability: ACV Assen or Hoogeveen?

We calculate the match outcome probabilities using the available odds and team form. The average bookmaker odds of 1.27 for a home win, 3.20 for a draw and 6.00 for an away win imply a 62% chance for ACV Assen after removing the margin. Given the hosts’ superior recent run – four wins and a draw in their last five compared to Hoogeveen’s two wins, one draw and two losses – we adjust the probability upward slightly. The final win probability numbers are:

• ACV Assen win: 65%
• Draw: 23%
• Hoogeveen win: 12%

Home advantage, better momentum and a far more consistent defensive record make ACV Assen the clear favourite to win inside 90 minutes.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are strongly favouring the home side. The best available odds at the time of writing are around 1.25–1.27 for an ACV Assen victory, 3.00–6.26 for a draw and 6.00–8.69 for a Hoogeveen win. Those odds reflect the large gap between the two teams’ current levels.

Based on the stats, form and odds, our final ACV Assen vs Hoogeveen prediction is a home win. The 65% probability points firmly towards ACV Assen progressing in the KNVB Beker. For those looking for betting tips, the home win, while short in price, is the most likely outcome. A draw is the second most probable result, but Hoogeveen’s defensive vulnerabilities make an away upset highly unlikely.