AD Moravia Women - Municipal Pococi Women prediction 3 October 2026

Our AD Moravia Women vs Municipal Pococi Women prediction for October 3, 2026, in the Costa Rica Primera Division Women gives the home side a 55% win probability. The match kicks off at 03:30 local time, with AD Moravia Women entering as the clear favorite based on recent form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds.

Team Form

AD Moravia Women have posted a mixed home form line of W-L-W-L-D over their last five matches. They crushed Upala Carrillo Women 6-1 on September 27 and edged Dimas Escazu Women 2-1 on September 5, but fell 1-2 to Alajuelense and lost away to Saprissa. The 2-2 draw with Sporting San Jose Women on August 22 completes a pattern of 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw. At home, they tend to score but also concede.

Municipal Pococi Women, on the other hand, are in terrible away shape with a form line of L-L-L-D-L. They were battered 1-6 by Alajuelense on September 28, lost 0-1 at Dimas Escazu, and suffered a humiliating 0-8 home defeat to Saprissa. The only point came in a 0-0 draw at home against Saprissa on September 6, but they followed that with a 1-7 thrashing at Sporting San Jose. In their last five, they scored just 2 goals and conceded 24.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met four times since August 2025, all in the league. AD Moravia Women hold a slight edge with 1 win and 3 draws; Municipal Pococi Women are winless. The most recent clash on August15, 2026 ended 0-0 away. Earlier, on February 21, 2026, it was another0-0 draw at this venue. The only victory came on September28, 2025, when AD Moravia Women won1-0 at home. The first encounter, on August10, 2025, finished2-2. The H2H record clearly points to low-scoring affairs and the home side’s dominance.

Win Probability: AD Moravia Women or Municipal Pococi Women?

Based on odds, form, and head-to-head stats, the win probabilities are calculated as:

• AD Moravia Women win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Municipal Pococi Women win: 20%

We started with bookmaker implied probabilities from three sets of 1X2 odds — inverse of best home odds 1.73, draw 4.00, away 3.60 — and removed the margin. That gave home ~47% after normalization. However, the huge gap in recent form (home 2-1-2 vs away 0-1-4) and the H2H record (1-3-0) justify an upward adjustment to 55% for the home side, with the draw and away probabilities dropping accordingly. AD Moravia Women’s home advantage, combined with Municipal Pococi Women’s leaky defense, makes the favorite status clear.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see AD Moravia Women as the clear favorite. The best offer on a home win is1.73, with draw odds stretching to4.00 and away odds of3.60. Early prices had the home win as high as2.20, but those have shortened, reflecting market confidence. Based on the stats, our AD Moravia Women vs Municipal Pococi Women prediction is a home victory. The draw cannot be dismissed given three stalemates in four H2H meetings, but Municipal Pococi Women’s current form makes an away result unlikely. Expect a low-scoring match in which AD Moravia Women should edge it.