Los Chankas CYC - AD Tarma prediction 16 October 2026

The Primera Division match between AD Tarma and Los Chankas CYC is set for Oct 16, 2026 at 21:30 at Municipal Los Chankas in Andahuaylas. Based on our analysis, Los Chankas CYC enters as a narrow favorite with a 35% win probability, while AD Tarma has a 27% chance and a draw stands at 38%.

Team Form

Los Chankas CYC are struggling for wins: in their last five matches they've recorded three draws (0-0 vs Atletico Grau, 1-1 away to Cienciano twice) and two defeats (1-2 home loss to FC Cajamarca and a 0-5 away thrashing by Sporting Cristal). AD Tarma have also had a tough run but managed one win in their last five: a 2-1 home victory over Cienciano on Sep 23. Their other results include a 0-0 home draw with FC Cajamarca and three losses — away to Alianza Lima (0-2), away to FBC Melgar (0-3), and home to Sport Huancayo (1-3). Both teams are low on confidence, but AD Tarma recently found a win, giving them a slight psychological edge.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four meetings, AD Tarma lead with 2 wins to Los Chankas' 1, with 1 draw. AD Tarma won both home fixtures (4-0 in Apr 2026 and 1-0 in Nov 2025). The only match in Andahuaylas so far ended 1-1 in Jul 2025, while Los Chankas claimed a 2-0 home win back in Feb 2024. The head-to-head suggests AD Tarma have the upper hand, especially when hosting, but Los Chankas can be stubborn at home.

League Table Positions

The Primera Division table is yet to take shape, as no matches have been played so far this season. Both teams are level on zero points, along with the rest of the league, so current standings provide no advantage or form indicator.

Win Probability: AD Tarma or Los Chankas CYC?

After normalising the latest bookmaker odds to remove the margin, the base probabilities were: Los Chankas win 37.0%, draw 36.2%, AD Tarma win 26.8%. Adjusting for recent form — Los Chankas winless in five (three draws), AD Tarma with one win in five — and head-to-head record (AD Tarma lead 2-1 in wins), we shift the numbers slightly in favour of the away team and a draw. The final win probability breakdown is:Los Chankas CYC 35%,Draw 38%,AD Tarma 27%. Home advantage gives Los Chankas a marginal favourite tag on paper, but their inability to win recently makes the draw the most likely single outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmaker odds see the home side Los Chankas priced between 2.20 and 2.58, while the draw can be backed at 2.22 to 3.40, and an AD Tarma away win ranges from 3.00 to 3.55. Based on the stats, a low-scoring affair is probable, with the draw offering value. Our prediction is a draw, reflecting both teams' recent struggles to secure victories and the tight head-to-head history at this venue.