Negelle Arsi - Adama City Kenema prediction 26 October 2026

On October 26, Negelle Arsi hosts Adama City Kenema in the Ethiopian Premier League, with our Negelle Arsi vs Adama City Kenema prediction assigning a 45% win probability to the home side, a 35% chance for a draw, and only 20% for an away victory. Kick-off is at 12:00 UTC in a match that pits two unbeaten sides against each other, but one dominated head‑to‑head history.

Team Form

Negelle Arsi enter the contest in solid shape, with a last‑five form line of W‑D‑D‑L‑W. They are unbeaten in their last three outings, most recently crushing Ethiopia Bunna 3‑0 away on October 21. Before that, they held Ethio Electric (0‑0) and Saint George SC (1‑1) to away draws, while their only blemish in this stretch was a 3‑0 loss at Mekelle Kenema back in July. Their most recent home match – also the only home game in this sample – was a convincing 2‑0 win over Ethiopia Nigd Bank on June 26.

Adama City Kenema’s form reads D‑D‑W‑W‑L, meaning they have failed to win in their last two matches. They played out a 1‑1 draw at Saint George SC on October 22 and a 0‑0 home draw with Sheger Ketema on October 16. Earlier, they collected back‑to‑back away wins at Ethio Electric (1‑0) and Hawassa City (3‑2). The loss came at home to Wolaita Dicha (0‑2) on June 28. This recent dip suggests the visitors are struggling to kill games off.

Head‑to‑Head Record

History heavily favors Negelle Arsi. In the only two previous meetings, Negelle Arsi won both, with no draws and no wins for Adama City Kenema. The match on April 5, 2026, ended 2‑1 in favor of Negelle Arsi at Adama City Kenema’s ground, and on November 20, 2025, Negelle Arsi triumphed 2‑1 at home. In both encounters, Negelle Arsi scored exactly two goals while conceding just one, highlighting a clear mental and tactical edge over Saturday’s opponents.

League Table Positions

Both clubs are inside the top seven of the Ethiopian Premier League with identical records: 3 played, 1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses, and 5 points. Negelle Arsi sit 5th with a goal difference of +3 (4 scored, 1 conceded), while Adama City Kenema are 7th with a +1 goal difference (2 scored, 1 conceded). Crucially, however, Negelle Arsi have yet to play a home league match this season – all their points were earned on the road. The visitors, Adama City Kenema, have a decent away record (1 win, 1 draw in 2 trips) but will now face a side that transforms its familiar surroundings for the first time in the campaign.

Win Probability: Negelle Arsi or Adama City Kenema?

Our probability model starts with the bookmakers’ 1X2 odds. The implied chances from the first available odds (2.88 for a home win, 1.85 for a draw, 4.00 for an away win) are 30.5% Negelle Arsi win, 47.5% draw, 22% Adama City Kenema win. However, we adjust significantly for the following reasons:

• Head‑to‑head dominance: Negelle Arsi won both previous meetings, scoring two goals each time.
• First home game of the season: Home advantage should further lift Negelle Arsi, who have been strong away from home.
• Visitor’s dip: Adama City Kenema are winless in their last two matches, while Negelle Arsi arrives unbeaten in three.

Taking all factors into account, we assign Negelle Arsi a 45% win probability, the draw stays a realistic 35%, and Adama City Kenema drop to just 20%. The home side is the clear more likely winner, even if a stalemate remains the second most probable outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a tight affair, with varying odds across the market. A sample shows:

• Negelle Arsi win: 2.88
• Draw: 1.85
• Adama City Kenema win: 4.00

Other price lists range from 2.75‑2.88 for the home side and 4.00‑4.75 for the away side, while the draw oscillates between 1.78 and 1.91. The short draw price reflects bookies’ view that this will be a close contest. Based on the stats, the head‑to‑head edge, and Negelle Arsi’s chance to finally play in front of their own crowd, our Negelle Arsi vs Adama City Kenema prediction is a home victory, but a draw cannot be ruled out. A low‑scoring 1‑0 or 2‑1 in favor of Negelle Arsi fits the data pattern best.