Sturt Lions Reserves - Adelaide Comets Reserves prediction 1 August 2026

Sturt Lions Reserves vs Adelaide Comets Reserves prediction for the NPL South Australia Reserves match on August 1, 2026, at 03:00 UTC. Based on our analysis of odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Sturt Lions Reserves are the favorites with a 45% win probability, while Adelaide Comets Reserves have a 25% chance, and the draw stands at 30%.

Team Form

Sturt Lions Reserves come into this match in strong form, winning four of their last five outings. Their recent results include a thrilling 5-4 away win against Adelaide United Reserves, a 3-1 victory at West Adelaide Reserves, and a 4-1 home triumph over Playford Reserves. The only blemish was a 3-0 defeat at West Torrens Birkalla Reserves. They have scored 16 goals in these five matches, showing attacking firepower.

Adelaide Comets Reserves have also been solid, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five. They demolished Beograd White City Woodville Adelaide Reserves 6-1 at home, edged Croydon Kings Reserves 1-0, and beat Adelaide City Reserves 3-1. A 1-1 draw at Campbelltown City Reserves and a 4-2 loss at Adelaide United Reserves complete the picture. They have netted 13 times in this period.

Head-to-Head Record

Sturt Lions Reserves hold a clear advantage in the head-to-head, winning three of the four meetings, with no draws. The most recent clash on May 9, 2026, saw Sturt Lions Reserves win 4-1 away at Adelaide Comets Reserves. The earlier encounters in 2018 both ended 2-1 to Sturt Lions Reserves at home, while Adelaide Comets Reserves’ sole win was a 4-0 home victory in March 2018.

Win Probability: Sturt Lions Reserves or Adelaide Comets Reserves?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head dominance, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Sturt Lions Reserves win: 45%
• Draw: 30%
• Adelaide Comets Reserves win: 25%

The odds implied a home win chance around 41%, but Sturt’s superior H2H record (3-1) and current form (four wins in five) justify a slight upgrade. Adelaide Comets Reserves have been competitive, but their away loss to Adelaide United Reserves and the heavy defeat in the last head-to-head meeting reduce their chances. Home advantage further tilts the balance in Sturt’s favor.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ average odds for the match are: Sturt Lions Reserves win at 2.19, draw at 2.83, and Adelaide Comets Reserves win at 3.28. These odds reflect the market’s view of Sturt as the favorite. Based on the stats, Sturt Lions Reserves are more likely to win, but the draw cannot be ruled out given both teams’ scoring form. Our prediction is a home win, with a possible scoreline of 2-1 or 3-1.