Perth Glory - Adelaide United prediction 1 November 2026

Perth Glory vs Adelaide United prediction for the Friendly Clubs match on October 3, 2026. Based on our analysis, Perth Glory are the favorites with a 45% win probability, while Adelaide United have a 22% chance of an away victory. The draw is rated at 33%.

Team Form

Perth Glory come into this match unbeaten in their last five outings (W, D, W, D, W). They secured a 2-0 win over Adelaide United on September 27, followed by a 0-0 draw with Queensland Lions, a 2-1 victory against Brisbane Roar, a 0-0 stalemate at Sydney FC, and a 3-1 triumph over Macarthur FC. The home side has been solid at both ends of the pitch.

Adelaide United's recent form is patchy (L, W, L, L, W). After the 0-2 loss to Perth Glory, they bounced back with a 3-0 win over Wofoo Tai Po, but then suffered defeats to Cong An Ha Noi (0-2) and South Melbourne (1-2). A 2-0 friendly win against Playford City Patriots offered some relief. The visitors have struggled for consistency, especially on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head, Perth Glory hold a narrow edge with 14 wins to Adelaide United's 13, alongside 6 draws. The last five meetings have been evenly split: two wins each and one draw. The most recent clash on September 27, 2026, ended in a 2-0 home victory for Perth Glory. Earlier in 2026, Adelaide United won 4-0 at home, while the December 2025 fixture saw Adelaide United win 1-0 in Perth. The April 2025 match was a 4-1 home win for Perth Glory, and the November 2024 encounter finished 2-2.

Win Probability: Perth Glory or Adelaide United?

Perth Glory has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 33%, and Adelaide United has a 22% chance. These probabilities are derived from the bookmakers' odds (inverse of the average odds, normalized to remove the margin) and adjusted for recent form and home advantage. The odds imply a close contest, but Perth Glory's unbeaten run and home factor give them a clear edge. Adelaide United's inconsistent away performances reduce their likelihood of an upset.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Perth Glory as the favorite. The best available odds for a home win range from 1.95 to 2.05, the draw is priced between 2.22 and 2.40, and an away win for Adelaide United can be backed at 3.05 to 3.75. Based on the stats, Perth Glory are expected to win, but the draw is a strong possibility. Our prediction: Perth Glory to win.