UE Castelldefels - AE Prat prediction 14 October 2026
UE Castelldefels
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Our UE Castelldefels vs AE Prat prediction for the October 14, 2026 Regional League clash shows AE Prat as the clear favorite with a 45% win probability. Kick-off is at 19:00 local time, and based on all available statsโhead-to-head history, recent form, and bookmaker oddsโthe away side holds a significant edge.
Team Form
UE Castelldefels is in dire form, failing to win any of their last five matches. The sequence of results reads L, L, L, L, D, with the only point coming from a 0-0 draw at Atletic Sant Just. In those five games they scored just once and conceded six times.
- 0-1 vs Jupiter (H)
- 0-1 vs UE Valls (H)
- 0-1 at CF Ciudad Cooperativa (A)
- 1-3 vs Santfeliuenc FC (H)
- 0-0 at Atletic Sant Just (A)
AE Prat shows more balanced recent results, with two wins, two defeats and one draw in their last five outings. Their attacking output has been better, and they managed to keep two clean sheets in that run.
- 1-2 vs UD San Mauro (H)
- 1-0 at UD San Mauro (A)
- 1-2 at Pobla Mafumet (A)
- 2-1 vs UE Valls (H)
- 0-0 at UA Horta (A)
Head-to-Head Record
AE Prat completely dominates this fixture. Across 10 previous meetings, UE Castelldefels have never won, with AE Prat recording 8 victories and 2 draws. The most recent clash on March 10, 2024, ended 3-1 in favor of AE Prat at this very ground.
Win Probability: UE Castelldefels or AE Prat?
Our win probability calculation, built from odds, H2H and current form, breaks down as follows:
- AE Prat win: 45%
- Draw: 30%
- UE Castelldefels win: 25%
The massive head-to-head skew (8-0 in wins to AE Prat) and UE Castelldefels' four-match losing run heavily shift the probabilities in favor of the away side. Even though some early odds framed the home team shorter, the on-pitch reality and historical data point firmly to an AE Prat advantage.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers offer different views. One bookmaker has odds of 2.70 for a home win, 2.10 for the draw and 3.60 for an away victory. Another quotes 2.20, 3.25 and 2.88 respectively. This variation reflects the uncertainty in betting markets, but after adjusting for the bookmaker margin and factoring in form and head-to-head, the value leans toward an away outcome. Our prediction: AE Prat to win, with a draw being the second most likely result. Given UE Castelldefels' scoring struggles, a 1-0 or 2-1 away victory fits the profile.
UE Castelldefels vs AE Prat โ FAQ
- Who will win UE Castelldefels vs AE Prat?
- AE Prat is the most likely winner with a 45% chance, while UE Castelldefels has a 25% chance and the draw stands at 30%. This is based on AE Prat's dominant head-to-head record (8 wins, 0 losses) and UE Castelldefels' poor form of four straight defeats.
- What is the win probability for AE Prat?
- AE Prat has a 45% probability of winning the match. This number comes from the inverse of bookmaker odds adjusted for the margin, further weighted by the team's historical superiority in this fixture and UE Castelldefels' current slump without a win in five games.
- When is the UE Castelldefels vs AE Prat match?
- The match kicks off on October 14, 2026, at 19:00 local time. It is part of the Regional League competition in Spain.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds vary between bookmakers. One lists a home win at 2.70, a draw at 2.10, and an away win at 3.60. Another offers 2.20 for a home win, 3.25 for the draw, and 2.88 for an away victory. The draw price of 2.10 from the first bookmaker is the shortest available, but historical data suggests the away side offers more value.