Odorheiu Secuiesc - Aerostar Bacau prediction 23 September 2026

The Odorheiu Secuiesc vs Aerostar Bacau prediction for this Liga III match on Sep 23, 2026, at 15:00 points to a home-favored contest. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Odorheiu Secuiesc enters as the favorite with a 50% win probability, while Aerostar Bacau’s chances are limited to 20%.

Team Form

Odorheiu Secuiesc’s last five matches show a mixed run: two draws, one win, and two losses (D, D, W, L, L). They drew 1-1 away at AS USV Iasi, 2-2 at Vaslui, won 4-2 at AS USV Iasi, then lost 1-2 at Stiinta Miroslava and suffered a heavy 2-6 home defeat to Soimii Gura Humorului. The side has struggled defensively, conceding in every recent outing.

Aerostar Bacau, on the other hand, is in a deep crisis with five straight losses (L, L, L, L, L). They were beaten 0-3 at Vaslui, 0-1 at home to Viitorul Curita Onesti in the Cup, 2-3 at ACS FC Bacau II, 1-3 at AS USV Iasi, and 0-4 at home to Viitorul Curita Onesti. The team has failed to score in three of those five matches and looks extremely vulnerable.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Aerostar Bacau, who have won both previous encounters. In those two Liga III meetings, both played on Dec 1, 2017, Aerostar Bacau triumphed 6-0 as the home side. Odorheiu Secuiesc has yet to register a win or even a draw against this opponent, giving the visitors a psychological edge despite the current form gap.

League Table Positions

Neither Odorheiu Secuiesc nor Aerostar Bacau appears in the top 12 of the available Liga III standings. The overall table is led by FC Cetate Suceava with 24 points from 8 wins. The absence of both teams from the upper echelons indicates they are likely positioned in the lower half of the league, making this a clash between two struggling sides.

Win Probability: Odorheiu Secuiesc or Aerostar Bacau?

After normalizing the average bookmaker odds (home 1.98, draw 2.86, away 4.20) to remove the margin, the base probabilities are: Odorheiu Secuiesc win 46.2%, draw 32.0%, Aerostar Bacau win 21.8%. Adjusting for current form and the head-to-head record, we raise the home win chance to 50%, keep the draw at 30%, and lower the away win to 20%. Odorheiu Secuiesc has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Aerostar Bacau has a 20% chance. The home side’s slight edge comes from playing at home and facing an opponent on a five-match losing streak, but their own inconsistency and poor H2H history prevent a higher probability.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this Liga III fixture. The best available home win odds are as low as 1.65, while the draw can be backed at up to 3.75, and an away win reaches 4.50. These prices reflect the market’s view of Odorheiu Secuiesc as the clear favorite. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a home victory, but a draw cannot be ruled out given Odorheiu’s recent two stalemates. Aerostar Bacau’s dreadful form makes an away win highly unlikely.