Worksop Town - AFC Telford United prediction 22 September 2026

Worksop Town vs AFC Telford United prediction for the FA Cup match on September 22, 2026. Based on our analysis of the latest odds, head-to-head records, and recent form, Worksop Town are the slight favorites with a 45% win probability, while the draw is at 30% and an AFC Telford win at 25%.

Team Form

Worksop Town come into this cup tie with a mixed run: two wins and three losses in their last five outings across all competitions. They beat Southport 2–0 at home, lost 1–2 to Bedford Town, won 1–0 away at Marine, then suffered back-to-back defeats – 0–1 at home to Oxford City and 1–3 away at Spalding United. At home their form reads W, L, L, which leaves question marks over consistency.

AFC Telford United’s recent five matches show a similar pattern: D, W, W, L, L. After a 0–0 draw at Harborough Town, they recorded consecutive 1–0 victories over Oxford City (home) and Scarborough Athletic (away), but then lost 0–1 at home to Bedford Town and 1–2 away at Morecambe. Defensively they have been slightly tighter, conceding only three goals in the last five, but goalscoring has been modest.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met three times in recent history, all in the National League North. Worksop Town have the upper hand with two wins to one. They claimed a 2–1 home victory on August 15, 2026, and a 3–1 home win on February 7, 2026. The sole AFC Telford success was a 2–1 home win on October 25, 2025. Worksop’s two wins this calendar year, both by multiple goals on home soil, underline their strong H2H advantage at this venue.

Win Probability: Worksop Town or AFC Telford United?

Worksop Town has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and AFC Telford United has a 25% chance. The calculation starts from bookmaker odds (2.00/2.25/3.60 imply probabilities of 41% home win, 36% draw, 23% away win after removing the margin). These base figures are then adjusted upwards for the home side due to its dominant head-to-head record (two wins in 2026, both at home) and the natural home advantage, while AFC Telford’s indifferent recent away form and lower H2H success rate pull their chances down slightly. Worksop’s own recent inconsistency prevents a larger shift, so the probabilities remain balanced but point to a home victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers make Worksop Town the favourite at odds of 2.00; the draw is priced at 2.25, while an AFC Telford United win is available at 3.60. Those odds translate to an implied probability of around 41% for a home win, 36% for a draw, and 23% for an away win. After weighing the team form and H2H data, our forecast leans toward a home win. Based on the stats, Worksop Town look the more likely winners, but the match could be tight given both teams’ recent results.