Montreal Roses Women - AFC Toronto Women prediction 11 September 2026

The Montreal Roses Women vs AFC Toronto Women prediction points to a closely-fought Northern Super League Women clash on Sep 10 at 23:00. Based on the data, the draw is the most probable outcome (40%), while AFC Toronto Women hold a slim win probability edge at 35% over Montreal Roses Women's 25%.

Team Form

Montreal Roses Women come into this match with strong momentum, having won three of their last five outings (W, W, D, W, L). Highlights include a 3-2 away win at Ottawa Rapid FC Women on Sep 6 and a 1-0 home success against Halifax Tides Women on Aug 29. Their only recent defeat was a 0-1 home loss to Halifax Tides Women on Aug 7.

AFC Toronto Women also show three wins in their last five (W, W, L, D, W). They beat Ottawa Rapid FC Women 2-1 at home on Aug 30 and crushed Calgary Wild FC Women 6-0 away on Aug 1. The setback came against Montreal Roses Women themselves, a 0-2 home loss on Aug 16. Both sides are in good scoring touch.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favours Montreal Roses Women. In four meetings, they lead with 2 wins against AFC Toronto Women's 1, alongside 1 draw. The most recent encounter on Aug 16, 2026 ended 0-2 in Montreal's favour at AFC Toronto's ground. AFC Toronto won 2-0 in Montreal on Jul 23, 2026, while the earlier 2026 fixtures finished 1-1 (Jun 13) and 0-1 to Montreal (May 10). Montreal have the historical edge.

League Table Positions

In the overall Northern Super League Women standings, Montreal Roses Women sit 2nd with 31 points from 17 games (9 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses; goals 31:19). AFC Toronto Women are 3rd with 31 points from 18 games (9 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses; goals 30:18). Montreal have a game in hand, but the gap is negligible.

At home, Montreal's record is 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses in 10 matches (14 points). Meanwhile, AFC Toronto Women boast the best away record in the league: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from 10 trips, collecting 23 points. This away strength makes them dangerous travellers.

Win Probability: Montreal Roses Women or AFC Toronto Women?

Win probabilities are calculated from bookmaker odds (home 3.00, draw 2.10, away 3.10), form, H2H, and home/away performance. The implied probabilities from odds—after removing the bookmaker margin—give Montreal a 29.4% chance, a draw 42.1%, and AFC Toronto 28.5%. Adjusting for AFC Toronto's superior away record (7-2-1) and Montreal's moderate home form (4-2-4), we assign Montreal Roses Women a 25% win probability, the draw a 40% chance, and AFC Toronto Women a 35% chance. AFC Toronto are therefore the slight favourites to win, but a draw remains the most likely single outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as an evenly balanced contest. The available odds are: Montreal Roses Women win at 3.00, draw at 2.10, AFC Toronto Women win at 3.10. These prices reflect the tight nature of the matchup.

Based on the stats, the betting tip is to consider a double chance on AFC Toronto Women or Draw. While AFC Toronto have the away form to edge it, the draw holds the highest probability. The match outcome chances reinforce a cautious approach.