AFC Toronto Women - Vancouver Rise Women prediction 4 October 2026

AFC Toronto Women vs Vancouver Rise Women prediction for the Northern Super League Women match on October 4, 2026. Our analysis gives AFC Toronto Women a 40% win probability, with Vancouver Rise Women at 35% and the draw at 25%. The league leaders have a slight edge, but their home struggles and Vancouver’s strong away form make this a very tight contest.

Team Form

AFC Toronto Women

AFC Toronto Women come into this match after a 3-0 home win over Ottawa Rapid FC on September 26. Their last five results are W, D, W, W, L. They also drew 2-2 away at Montreal Roses, beat Ottawa 2-1 at home, won 2-0 at Halifax Tides, and lost 0-2 at home to Montreal. Overall, they sit 1st in the Northern Super League Women with 37 points from 22 matches (10 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses). However, their home form is a weak point: only 3 wins in 10 home games (3W 3D 4L), with just 8 goals scored and 10 conceded at home.

Vancouver Rise Women

Vancouver Rise Women’s last five outings: D, W, L, D, W. They drew 2-2 at home with Montreal Roses, thrashed Ottawa Rapid FC 4-0 at home, lost 0-1 at home to Halifax Tides, drew 2-2 with Calgary Wild FC, and won 5-1 away at Ottawa. Their away record this season is 5 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses from 9 matches, with 19 goals scored and 20 conceded. Vancouver are 4th in the overall standings with 27 points (8W 3D 10L).

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head, Vancouver Rise Women lead with 4 wins to AFC Toronto Women’s 2, and there have been no draws. The most recent meeting was on July 18, 2026, when Vancouver won 3-0 away at AFC Toronto. Earlier in the season, AFC Toronto won 3-1 away in June. Vancouver have generally had the upper hand, winning four of the last six encounters.

League Table Positions

AFC Toronto Women are top of the Northern Super League Women with 37 points (10W 7D 5L, goals 36:21). Vancouver Rise Women are 4th with 27 points (8W 3D 10L, goals 40:44). In the home standings, AFC Toronto rank only 3rd with 12 points from 10 games. Vancouver’s away form places them 4th in the away table with 16 points from 9 games. This contrast is a key factor: Vancouver have been more effective on the road than AFC Toronto have been at home.

Win Probability: AFC Toronto Women or Vancouver Rise Women?

AFC Toronto Women have a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Vancouver Rise Women have a 35% chance. Despite AFC Toronto’s league-leading position and slightly better recent form (W-D-W-W-L vs D-W-L-D-W), their poor home record (1.20 points per game) and Vancouver’s strong away form (1.78 points per game) level the playing field. The head-to-head record also favours Vancouver. This match is too close to call with high confidence, and a draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are currently available for this fixture. Based on the statistical analysis, the match is expected to be closely contested. Our prediction leans towards a double chance for AFC Toronto or a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline being a plausible result. Vancouver’s away threat means they cannot be ruled out, but AFC Toronto’s overall quality gives them a marginal advantage.