AFC Wimbledon - Barnet prediction 6 October 2026

Our AFC Wimbledon vs Barnet prediction for the EFL Trophy match on October 6, 2026, gives the home side a 40% chance of winning. The match kicks off at 19:00 local time, and AFC Wimbledon are the favorites based on the latest odds and team form.

Team Form

AFC Wimbledon (League 1) are unbeaten in five matches, but three straight draws have slowed their momentum:

• Oct 3: AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Stevenage (D)
• Sep 26: Cambridge United 1-1 AFC Wimbledon (D)
• Sep 17: AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons (D)
• Sep 12: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Doncaster Rovers (W)
• Sep 7: Bromley 0-2 AFC Wimbledon (W)

Barnet (League 2) are also unbeaten in their last five away games, with two wins followed by three draws:

• Sep 19: Barnet 3-1 Fleetwood Town (W)
• Sep 12: Barnet 2-1 Accrington Stanley (W)
• Sep 5: Chesterfield 3-3 Barnet (D)
• Sep 1: Exeter City 1-1 Barnet (D)
• Aug 29: Barnet 2-2 Cheltenham Town (D)

The division difference is notable: AFC Wimbledon face League 1 opposition weekly, while Barnet compete in League 2. This quality gap often translates to cup competitions like the EFL Trophy.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met only once before, in the FA Trophy on August 29, 2017. AFC Wimbledon won that match 4-3 away at Barnet. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for AFC Wimbledon, 0 for Barnet, and 0 draws.

Win Probability: AFC Wimbledon or Barnet?

Based on the odds, recent form, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 40%, draw 30%, Barnet 30%. The bookmakers’ average odds imply a 37.6% chance for a home win, 33.0% for a draw, and 29.4% for an away win. We have adjusted these slightly to reflect AFC Wimbledon’s home strength, their higher league status, and their head-to-head edge. AFC Wimbledon are the more likely winners, but a draw is a real possibility given both teams’ recent records of stalemates.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds across major bookmakers are 2.26 for an AFC Wimbledon win, 2.58 for a draw, and 2.89 for a Barnet win. This means the bookmakers see AFC Wimbledon as the favorite. Our prediction: AFC Wimbledon to win, but with caution. A low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out. For betting tips, the home win offers value, but the draw is also worth considering given the form of both sides.