AGMK Olmaliq - Navbahor Namangan prediction 11 October 2026

The Navbahor Namangan vs AGMK Olmaliq prediction for the Super League match on July 17, 2026, at 15:00, points to a home win with a 58% probability. Navbahor Namangan are the clear favourites based on their superior league position, strong head-to-head record, and solid recent form. AGMK Olmaliq, however, are unbeaten in five and will look to cause an upset.

Team Form

Navbahor Namangan come into this match unbeaten in their last five outings, with two wins and three draws. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw at home to Sementchi Kuvasoy in the Pro League on June 7. Prior to that, they drew 0-0 away at Barkamol Avlod and beat FarDu Fergana 4-1 in the Cup. At home, they have been solid, with a 3-2 win over Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent and that 1-1 draw.

AGMK Olmaliq are also in fine form, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches. They beat Aral Samali PFK 2-1 at home in the Cup, won 3-2 away at FK Kokand 1912, and drew 3-3 with Metallurg Bekabad. In the Super League, they drew 0-0 with Neftchi and beat Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent 2-1. Their away form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours Navbahor Namangan, who have 14 wins to AGMK Olmaliq's 5, with 8 draws in 27 meetings. In the last five encounters, Navbahor won once, with three draws and one AGMK victory. The most recent clash was in November 2025, when AGMK won 3-1 at home. However, when Navbahor hosted in June 2025, they triumphed 3-0. The previous three matches all ended level, including a 1-1 draw in March 2024 and two 2-2 and 0-0 draws in 2023.

League Table Positions

In the Super League standings, Navbahor Namangan sit 3rd with 20 points from 11 matches (6 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 14 goals and conceded only 8, boasting the second-best defence in the league. AGMK Olmaliq are 8th with 16 points (4 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses), with 14 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home, Navbahor have collected 7 points from 4 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while AGMK have taken 7 points from 5 away matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). The gap between the sides is 4 points, and Navbahor's superior goal difference underlines their stronger campaign so far.

Win Probability: Navbahor Namangan or AGMK Olmaliq?

Based on the latest odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Navbahor Namangan have a 58% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and AGMK Olmaliq have a 16% chance. These percentages are derived from bookmaker odds (home win 1.72, draw 3.50, away win 5.76), adjusted for Navbahor's home advantage, their higher league standing, and a dominant historical H2H record. Navbahor's solid defence and unbeaten run make them clear favourites, but AGMK's recent away wins suggest they cannot be completely ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Navbahor Namangan as the favourites, with best odds around 1.72 for a home win. The draw is priced at 3.50, and an AGMK Olmaliq away victory at 5.76. These odds imply a 58% probability for a home win, which aligns with our adjusted prediction. Our match prediction: based on the stats, Navbahor Namangan are the more likely winners, but a low-scoring affair could be on the cards given both teams' recent defensive records. A 1-0 or 2-0 home win is a plausible outcome.