Ajax - SBV Excelsior Rotterdam prediction 19 September 2026

This Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Rotterdam prediction covers the Eredivisie match at Amsterdam Arena in Amsterdam on Sep 19, 2026, at 18:00. Ajax is the clear favorite with a 62% win probability, the draw is 24%, and SBV Excelsior Rotterdam is at 14%. The odds, home advantage and recent form all point to Ajax, but Excelsior's away record keeps this an interesting betting contest.

Team Form

Ajax Form

Ajax's last five results are W, L, W, W, W. They won 5-1 away at Fortuna Sittard, lost 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven, won 4-0 away at Telstar, and recorded two UEFA Conference League Qualification wins over Sion: 5-3 at home and 4-2 away. Each of those five matches produced at least four total goals. In the Eredivisie standings, Ajax have scored 9 goals and conceded 5.

SBV Excelsior Rotterdam Form

SBV Excelsior Rotterdam's last five results are L, D, W, W, L. They lost 1-2 at home to Utrecht, drew 2-2 away at NEC Nijmegen, won 3-0 away at Willem II, beat Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 at home, and lost 1-2 at home to PSV Eindhoven. Four of their last five matches produced three or fewer total goals. Their away league record in the standings shows two wins and a draw in three matches, with 9 goals scored and 2 conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

Ajax leads the overall head-to-head with 13 wins to SBV Excelsior Rotterdam's 2, plus 3 draws. Recent meetings are more balanced: Excelsior is unbeaten in the last two H2H matches. The most recent five results are:

• Feb 01, 2026: SBV Excelsior Rotterdam 2-2 Ajax
• Nov 22, 2025: Ajax 1-2 SBV Excelsior Rotterdam
• Aug 19, 2023: SBV Excelsior Rotterdam 2-2 Ajax
• Jan 29, 2023: SBV Excelsior Rotterdam 1-4 Ajax
• Oct 16, 2022: Ajax 7-1 SBV Excelsior Rotterdam

League Table Positions

SBV Excelsior Rotterdam sit 4th in the Eredivisie with 10 points from 5 matches, while Ajax are 8th with 7 points from 4 matches. Excelsior hold a three-point advantage, but Ajax have a game in hand. The goal difference also favors Excelsior at +7 (12 scored, 5 conceded) compared with Ajax at +4 (9 scored, 5 conceded).

Ajax vs SBV Excelsior Rotterdam Prediction: Win Probability

The win probability for this match is based on the 1X2 odds, recent form, league positions and head-to-head record. Ajax has a 62% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and SBV Excelsior Rotterdam has a 14% chance.

Bookmakers make Ajax the strong favorite. The home win odds range from 1.25 to 1.34, draw odds range from 2.62 to 5.70, and away win odds range from 6.00 to 8.20. After normalizing the implied probabilities and slightly adjusting for Excelsior's strong away record and their last two H2H results, the percentages settle at 62% for Ajax, 24% for the draw and 14% for SBV Excelsior Rotterdam.

Odds & Match Prediction

The selected 1X2 odds confirm Ajax as the favorite. Home win odds are as short as 1.25, while an Excelsior away win is priced as high as 8.20. The draw odds vary from 2.62 to 5.70 across the listed bookmakers.

So, who will win? Based on the stats, Ajax to win is the most likely match outcome. The main betting tip is Ajax to win, but Excelsior's away form and the recent head-to-head results suggest the draw and Excelsior double chance should not be dismissed. Bookmakers see Ajax as the favorite, and the win probability model supports that view.