Al Fateh - Al Shabab Riyadh prediction 22 October 2026

Our Al Fateh vs Al Shabab Riyadh prediction for this Pro League match on October 22, 2026, at 15:45 leans toward an away win. Bookmakers see Al Shabab Riyadh as the favorite, and based on recent form and head-to-head records, we give them a higher win probability of 41%, compared to Al Fateh's 33% and a 26% chance of a draw.

Team Form

Al Fateh enter this match in poor shape. Their last five results show four defeats and just one win: L, W, L, L, L. Most recently, they lost 2-3 at home to Al Khaleej Saihat on October 18 and were beaten 0-4 by Al Ahli Jeddah on October 9. The only bright spot was a 3-2 away win against Al Hazm on October 15. Defensively, they have conceded 11 goals in these five games, which is a major concern.

Al Shabab Riyadh’s form is steadier but far from dominant. Their last five results read D, D, W, D, L. They drew 2-2 with Al Faisaly Harmah on October 19 and held Al Ittihad Jeddah to a 0-0 draw away on October 16. A 3-0 home win over Al Taawon Buraidah on October 11 shows their potential, but a 1-2 loss to Al Khlood on September 9 highlights inconsistency on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head between these sides is balanced, with 7 Al Fateh wins, 7 draws, and 4 Al Shabab Riyadh wins in their history. In the last five meetings, Al Fateh have the edge. They won 2-0 at home on January 3, 2026, and 3-1 at home on May 1, 2025. The other three matches ended in draws: 1-1 on April 28, 2026, 2-2 on December 5, 2024, and 1-1 on December 15, 2023. Notably, Al Fateh are unbeaten in the last three clashes at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium.

League Table Positions

Neither team appears in the current overall league table top 12 provided. While their exact positions and points are not shown in the data, Al Fateh’s recent results suggest they are struggling in the lower half. Al Shabab Riyadh have collected draws against top-half sides like Al Ittihad Jeddah, indicating they are more competitive.

Win Probability: Al Fateh or Al Shabab Riyadh?

Based on bookmaker odds, recent form, head-to-head trends, and home advantage, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Al Shabab Riyadh has a 41% chance of winning, Al Fateh has a 33% chance, and the draw stands at 26%. The odds across markets consistently price Al Shabab Riyadh lower (averaging around 2.20), translating to an implied probability edge after removing the margin. Al Fateh’s poor defensive form (11 goals conceded in 5 games) reduces their home advantage, while Al Shabab Riyadh’s ability to grind out draws against strong opponents adds weight to their favoritism.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds present Al Shabab Riyadh as favorites. Values range from 2.00 to 2.40 for an away win, while home win odds sit between 2.80 and 3.15. The draw is priced between 2.26 and 2.45. Based on these stats, the value could lie with the away side, but caution is warranted given Al Fateh’s strong recent home H2H record. Our match prediction is a narrow victory for Al Shabab Riyadh.