Al Wakrah - Al Gharafa prediction 8 October 2026

The Al Wakrah vs Al Gharafa prediction for this Stars League clash on October 8, 2026, points to an away win, with Al Gharafa holding a 40% chance of victory. A draw is also highly likely at 35%, while Al Wakrah's home win probability sits at just 25%.

Team Form

Al Wakrah have struggled for consistency, recording one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five outings. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw at Al Kharitiyath (Sep 28), preceded by a 1-0 home win over Al Sailiya (Sep 20). League form is a concern: a 1-1 home draw with Al Shamal (Sep 10), a 4-0 thrashing at Lusail (Sep 4), and a 2-1 home defeat to Al Rayyan (Aug 27).

Al Gharafa have also been patchy, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five. They beat Mesaimeer 4-2 at home in the Stars Cup (Oct 1), but lost 2-1 at Al Hilal Riyadh in the AFC Champions League (Sep 15), drew 0-0 at home with Lusail (Sep 11), and suffered back-to-back defeats to Al Sadd Doha – 4-1 away (Sep 5) and 2-1 away in the Stars Cup (Sep 1).

Head-to-Head Record

In 19 previous meetings, Al Wakrah have won just 3 times, with 7 draws and 9 wins for Al Gharafa. The last five encounters underline Al Gharafa's dominance:

• May 5, 2026 (Stars Cup): Al Wakrah 0-0 Al Gharafa
• Apr 8, 2026 (Stars League): Al Wakrah 3-3 Al Gharafa
• Dec 13, 2025 (Stars Cup): Al Wakrah 2-3 Al Gharafa
• Nov 21, 2025 (Stars League): Al Gharafa 1-0 Al Wakrah
• Apr 11, 2025 (Stars League): Al Wakrah 1-1 Al Gharafa

Al Gharafa are unbeaten in these five (2 wins, 3 draws), and the away side has historically outperformed the host in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Al Gharafa sit 8th in the Stars League with 4 points from 4 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses; goals 4-8). Al Wakrah are 10th with 2 points (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses; goals 4-9). The gap is small, but Al Gharafa’s slightly superior record and goal difference give them an edge. Al Wakrah have taken just 1 point from their two home league games (a draw and a loss), while Al Gharafa have 1 point from two away league matches.

Win Probability: Al Wakrah or Al Gharafa?

Based on the head-to-head record, current form, and league standings, the win probabilities are:

• Al Wakrah win: 25%
• Draw: 35%
• Al Gharafa win: 40%

The reasoning is clear: Al Gharafa have dominated the H2H (47% away win rate historically), and even in recent meetings they remain unbeaten. Both teams are in poor form, but Al Gharafa’s slightly higher league position and Al Wakrah’s weak home performances tip the balance. Home advantage is unlikely to be decisive. Al Gharafa are the more probable winners, though a stalemate is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds for this fixture are not available in the provided data. However, based on the statistical analysis, bookmakers would likely price Al Gharafa as marginal favourites, with a draw also short. Our Al Wakrah vs Al Gharafa prediction: Al Gharafa to win or draw is the safest call, with a 1-1 or 2-1 away scoreline the most likely scenarios.