Al Gharafa - Mesaimeer prediction 1 October 2026

The Al Gharafa vs Mesaimeer prediction for this Stars Cup fixture on October 1, 2026, at 16:00 points towards a comfortable home victory. Based on the available form data and the gap in league stature, Al Gharafa has a 72% chance of winning, the draw is at 18%, and Mesaimeer has a 10% chance.

Team Form

Al Gharafa enters this match in poor form, having lost four of their last five matches and drawn one. Their most recent result was a 2-1 defeat away to Al Hilal Riyadh in the AFC Champions League on September 15. In the Stars League, they drew 0-0 with Lusail on September 11 and suffered heavy losses to Al Sadd Doha (4-1) and Al Shamal (1-3).

Mesaimeer's recent form is also weak, with three losses, one draw, and one win in their last five outings. They lost 1-0 at home to Al Waab Sports Club in the Stars Cup on September 22. Their only victory in this run was a 1-0 home win against Al Muaither SC in League 2 on August 24.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no recorded head-to-head history between Al Gharafa and Mesaimeer. This Stars Cup clash will be the first official meeting between the two sides.

League Table Positions

Al Gharafa competes in the top-tier Stars League, while Mesaimeer plays in League 2, the second division of Qatari football. This significant gap in competition level heavily favors the top-flight side, despite their recent struggles against stronger opponents.

Win Probability: Al Gharafa or Mesaimeer?

Al Gharafa has a 72% chance of winning, the draw is at 18%, and Mesaimeer has a 10% chance. This probability calculation is based on the inverse of typical bookmaker odds, heavily adjusted for the disparity in league levels and Al Gharafa's home advantage. While Al Gharafa's recent form is poor, those results came against elite Asian and top-tier Qatari opposition. Mesaimeer's form is similarly weak, but against second-division teams. The class difference makes Al Gharafa the overwhelming favorite to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific 1X2 odds are not available in the current data. However, based on the stats, bookmakers would likely price Al Gharafa as a strong favorite. The prediction is a win for Al Gharafa, driven by their superior league status and home advantage, despite their recent losing streak.