Ghazl El Mahallah - Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria prediction 21 October 2026

Looking for a Ghazl El Mahallah vs Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria prediction? The Egyptian Premier League fixture takes place on October 21, 2026, at 15:00 local time at Mahalla Stadium. Our analysis, based on odds, recent form, head-to-head records, and league standings, indicates a draw is the most probable outcome (40%), while Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria hold a 35% chance of winning and Ghazl El Mahallah just 25%.

Team Form

Ghazl El Mahallah’s recent results paint a worrying picture. In their last five matches (all competitions), they failed to record a single victory:

• Oct 12 – Smouha SC 1-0 Ghazl El Mahallah (L)
• Oct 8 – Ghazl El Mahallah 1-1 Abu Qair Semad (D, League Cup)
• Sep 16 – Ghazl El Mahallah 0-1 Zamalek (L)
• Sep 7 – National Bank of Egypt 3-1 Ghazl El Mahallah (L)
• Sep 1 – Ghazl El Mahallah 0-0 ENPPI (D)

They have scored only two goals in these five outings while conceding six, showing both a lack of cutting edge and defensive vulnerability.

Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria, on the other hand, are in excellent form – especially in Premier League action:

• Oct 13 – Al Ittihad 2-1 El Gounah (W)
• Oct 8 – Al Ittihad 0-1 Wadi Degla (L, League Cup)
• Sep 15 – Al Masry 0-2 Al Ittihad (W)
• Sep 7 – Al Ittihad 1-0 Asyut Petroleum (W)
• Sep 2 – Abu Qair Semad 0-2 Al Ittihad (W)

Four wins from five matches, with seven goals scored and just two conceded, underline the visitors' strength.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, this fixture has been tight. In 11 previous meetings, Ghazl El Mahallah have won 3, Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria have won 2, and there have been 6 draws. The last five encounters:

• May 18, 2026 – Ghazl El Mahallah 1-0 Al Ittihad
• Mar 2, 2026 – Al Ittihad 2-0 Ghazl El Mahallah
• May 10, 2025 – Al Ittihad 0-0 Ghazl El Mahallah
• Dec 21, 2024 – Ghazl El Mahallah 0-0 Al Ittihad
• Mar 31, 2023 – Ghazl El Mahallah 2-0 Al Ittihad

With three draws in the last five and low-scoring affairs common, the pattern supports a closely contested match with a high probability of a stalemate.

League Table Positions

Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria sit 5th in the Premier League with 13 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss; GF8, GA4). Ghazl El Mahallah are outside the top 12 and their full record is not provided, but their absence from the upper half highlights their struggles. Notably, Al Ittihad’s away form is stellar: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, with 4 goals scored and 0 conceded in three road trips.

Win Probability: Ghazl El Mahallah or Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria?

Using the available odds as a base and adjusting for current form and statistics, we calculated the outcome probabilities:

• Ghazl El Mahallah win: 25%
• Draw: 40%
• Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria win: 35%

The bookmakers’ average odds (home 2.81, draw 1.87, away 3.31) implied a draw probability of about 45% after removing the margin. We lowered the draw slightly and boosted Al Ittihad’s chance because of their outstanding away record and Ghazl El Mahallah’s poor run at home. The high frequency of draws in head-to-head history (6 in 11) further supports a draw as the single most likely result. However, if a winner emerges, Al Ittihad Al Sakandary Alexandria are the better bet.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average 1X2 odds across six bookmakers: home win 2.81, draw 1.87, away win 3.31. These numbers reflect the bookmakers’ assessment that a stalemate is the most probable outcome. Our match prediction: based on the stats, watch for a low-scoring game; a draw or a narrow away victory are the two most realistic scenarios. Given Al Ittihad’s defensive solidity on the road (zero goals conceded in three league away matches) and Ghazl El Mahallah’s scoring difficulties, the value may lie with the double chance X2 (draw or away win).