Al Karkh - Al Mosul prediction 23 October 2026

The Al Karkh vs Al Mosul prediction for October 23, 2026, analyzes this Iraqi Stars League fixture. Based on available data, the match is expected to be closely contested, with Al Karkh holding a slight edge due to home advantage and a superior head-to-head record.

Team Form

Al Karkh's recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five matches (D, L, W, W, L). At home, they secured back-to-back 3-2 victories against Al Nafit Maysan and Duhok in September, showing offensive strength. However, their latest away match resulted in a 1-1 draw at Al Shorta Bagdad.

Al Mosul's recent results show one win, three losses, and one draw (W, L, L, L, D). Their away form includes a 1-0 win at Erbil SC in their most recent outing, but prior to that they suffered a 3-0 loss at Newroz SC and failed to score in home defeats to Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Al Naft.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met twice previously in the Stars League. Al Karkh leads the head-to-head with one win and one draw. They won 2-1 away at Al Mosul in April 2026, and the teams drew 2-2 at Al Karkh in January 2026. Al Mosul has yet to record a victory over Al Karkh.

League Table Positions

Complete league standings for Al Karkh and Al Mosul are not available in the provided data. Only the top 12 overall positions in the Stars League are listed, and neither team appears in these rankings. Without their specific points and position, a direct comparison based on the table is not possible. The form guides and the head-to-head record must therefore be given heavier weighting for this prediction.

Win Probability: Al Karkh or Al Mosul?

Calculating the win probability based on available odds, head-to-head, and recent form, we estimate: Al Karkh has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Al Mosul has a 22% chance.

This calculation starts with the bookmaker odds (best available: 3.00-2.05-3.50). The inverse of these odds is normalized to remove the theoretical margin, giving an initial probability. This is then adjusted to account for Al Karkh's undefeated head-to-head record (1 win, 1 draw) and their home advantage, where they scored six goals in their last two home games. Al Mosul's low away win rate, with just one win in their last five overall, reduces their chances of a clean victory. The most likely outcome is an Al Karkh win, but the draw is a significant possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' pre-match odds highlight the competitive nature of this fixture. The best available prices are: home win at 3.00, draw at 2.05, and away win at 3.50. The odds imply a tight match, with the draw priced as the most likely single outcome by a small margin. However, factoring in the head-to-head and recent home attacking form, Al Karkh appears to offer value as the match favorite based on the stats. A 1X double chance supports the prediction that Al Mosul's wait for a first win in this fixture will continue.