Al Shorta Bagdad - Ghaz Al Shamal prediction 12 September 2026

The Al Shorta Bagdad vs Ghaz Al Shamal prediction for September 12, 2026, points to a home win in this Stars League clash. Based on recent form and league standings, Al Shorta Bagdad enters the match as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while Ghaz Al Shamal faces an uphill battle at 20%.

Team Form

Al Shorta Bagdad comes into this fixture in strong shape, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their most recent outing was a 2-1 away victory over Al Gharraf FC on September 8. The full sequence reads:

• Sep 08: Al Gharraf FC 1-2 Al Shorta Bagdad (W)
• Sep 04: Al Shorta Bagdad 0-0 Erbil SC (D)
• Aug 30: Al Shorta Bagdad 2-0 Al Mosul (W)
• Aug 25: Al Julan 0-1 Al Shorta Bagdad (W)
• Aug 21: Al Karma 2-1 Al Shorta Bagdad (L)

Overall, they have scored 7 goals and conceded 4 in six league games, showing a solid defensive record. At home, they remain unbeaten with one win and two draws.

Ghaz Al Shamal, on the other hand, is struggling for consistency. Their last five results show three draws and two losses, with no wins. The recent matches are:

• Sep 08: Duhok 1-1 Ghaz Al Shamal (D)
• Sep 04: Ghaz Al Shamal 0-1 Al Julan (L)
• Aug 25: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1-1 Ghaz Al Shamal (D)
• Aug 20: Ghaz Al Shamal 1-1 Al Kahrabaa (D)
• Aug 15: Zakho 1-0 Ghaz Al Shamal (L)

They have managed just 4 goals in 6 league matches, highlighting their attacking difficulties. Away from home, they have collected 5 points from 4 games (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss).

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between Al Shorta Bagdad and Ghaz Al Shamal. This will be their first meeting, meaning no direct form guide exists. The lack of past encounters adds an element of unpredictability, but current form heavily favors the home side.

League Table Positions

In the Stars League standings, Al Shorta Bagdad sits 4th with 11 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). They are just 3 points off the top and have a game in hand on leaders Erbil SC. Ghaz Al Shamal is 12th with 6 points (1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses), only above the relegation zone on goal difference. At home, Al Shorta Bagdad is unbeaten with 1 win and 2 draws, while Ghaz Al Shamal has collected 5 points from 4 away games (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss). The gap in quality and position is evident.

Win Probability: Al Shorta Bagdad or Ghaz Al Shamal?

After analyzing all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Al Shorta Bagdad has a 55% chance of winning, a draw stands at 25%, and Ghaz Al Shamal has a 20% chance. This assessment is based on the home team's superior recent form (3 wins in last 5 vs 0 wins for the visitors), their higher league position, and the advantage of playing at home. Ghaz Al Shamal's away record is not disastrous, but their inability to secure victories makes an upset unlikely. Given both teams' recent low-scoring matches, under 2.5 total goals could be a sensible betting tip.

Al Shorta Bagdad vs Ghaz Al Shamal Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers have not yet released odds for this fixture. However, based on the stats, Al Shorta Bagdad is the logical favorite. A home win is the most probable outcome, but the draw cannot be discounted given Ghaz Al Shamal's tendency to share points. Our prediction: Al Shorta Bagdad to win, possibly by a narrow margin.