Alanyaspor - Kocaelispor prediction 23 October 2026

The Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor prediction sees the home side as the favorite to win this Super League match on Oct 23 at 18:00. Based on the odds, form, and head-to-head record, Alanyaspor has a 52% chance of taking all three points, with the draw at 27% and Kocaelispor at 21%.

Team Form

Alanyaspor come into this match with a mixed run of results in their last five league games: two wins, two draws, and one defeat (W, D, W, D, L). Their most recent outing was a 3-0 loss away to Fenerbahce on Oct 17. Before that, they played a 0-0 draw at home against Erzurum Buyuksehir on Oct 10. At home, they have been tough to beat, showing resilience even when not at their best.

Kocaelispor's recent form shows two wins and three losses in their last five (L, L, W, L, W). They are coming off a 2-1 home defeat to Goztepe on Oct 18. Their away form appears vulnerable; they lost 2-1 at Besiktas on Oct 11. With two defeats in their last two matches, confidence might be an issue heading into this fixture.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record slightly favors Alanyaspor, who have two wins to Kocaelispor's one in their last three meetings, with no draws. The most recent clash was in March 2026, where Alanyaspor secured a dominant 5-0 home victory. Kocaelispor won the previous fixture 2-0 at home in October 2025. An earlier Cup match in 2023 also ended in a 1-0 win for Alanyaspor. Home advantage has been pivotal in this fixture.

League Table Positions

In the overall Super League standings, Kocaelispor sits in 8th place with 12 points from 8 matches, while Alanyaspor is 9th, also with 12 points but a slightly inferior goal difference. However, the home and away tables reveal a clearer picture. Alanyaspor ranks 7th in the away table with 7 points from 5 away games. Kocaelispor is 7th in the home table with 9 points from 4 home matches, but this match is at Alanyaspor's ground. Crucially, the data shows Alanyaspor's home form directly—they are a side that is difficult to break down at the Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadium.

Win Probability: Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor?

After analyzing all available data, the win probability is Alanyaspor 52%, Draw 27%, and Kocaelispor 21%. These percentages are calculated by starting with the inverse of the average odds (home: 1.86, draw: 2.33, away: 4.25), normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusting for the strong head-to-head home advantage and Alanyaspor's solid recent home form against Kocaelispor's struggles on the road. Alanyaspor has a clear edge, but the draw remains a significant possibility given their recent draws.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the odds with Alanyaspor as the firm favorite. The best available home win odds are around 1.90, with the draw priced at about 2.05 and an away win for Kocaelispor as high as 4.55. This market consensus reflects a strong belief that home advantage will be decisive. Based on the stats, the prediction is a home win for Alanyaspor, though a low-scoring match is likely considering both teams' goal records.