Tadley Calleva - Aldershot Town prediction 20 October 2026

The Aldershot Town vs Tadley Calleva prediction for this FA Cup replay on October 20, 2026, at 19:45 points towards Aldershot Town as the favorite. Based on the odds and recent form, Aldershot Town has a strong advantage, but Tadley Calleva's home resilience makes this a tricky tie.

Team Form

Tadley Calleva come into this match with solid recent form, especially at home in the FA Cup. Their last three results are D, W, W. They managed a 2-2 draw away at Aldershot Town in the first meeting on October 17, then secured two home wins: 2-1 against Dartford and 4-2 against Weymouth. This shows their ability to score goals in front of their own fans.

Aldershot Town's recent form is more mixed, with D, W, L, L, L in their last five matches. The 2-2 draw against Tadley Calleva was followed by a 5-3 home win over Norwich City U21 in the National League Cup. However, their National League form is poor, with losses to Altrincham (3-1), Carlisle United (3-1 at home), and AFC Hornchurch (2-1). They have struggled defensively on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is minimal, with just one previous meeting recorded. That match, played on October 17, 2026, in the FA Cup, ended in a 2-2 draw between Aldershot Town and Tadley Calleva. With 0 wins for each side and 1 draw, the record offers little historical edge to either team.

League Table Positions

No current league table data is available for these teams in the provided information. Aldershot Town plays in the National League, while Tadley Calleva competes in a lower tier, giving Aldershot a theoretical league status advantage despite their poor recent domestic form.

Win Probability: Aldershot Town or Tadley Calleva?

Calculating the win probability based on bookmaker odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home/away factors, the outcome percentages are:

• Aldershot Town win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Tadley Calleva win: 20%

This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds from bookmakers, normalized to remove the margin. The base probability from odds favors Aldershot Town, and their superior league standing supports this. However, Tadley Calleva's unbeaten home FA Cup run and Aldershot's poor away form adjust the percentages, reducing the visitors' edge and giving the home side a fighting chance. Aldershot Town is more likely to win, but a draw in regular time is a significant possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Aldershot Town as the favorite. The available odds vary, with the best prices showing an away win as low as 1.53, a draw around 2.52 to 4.75, and a home win at 4.00 to 4.95. The odds imply value in the away win, but the wide range on the draw reflects uncertainty. Based on the stats, the prediction leans towards an Aldershot Town victory, likely in a closely contested match.