Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atletico La Paz prediction 25 September 2026
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Atletico La PazAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Cruz Azul HidalgoLeones Negros UDGAlebrijes de OaxacaAlebrijes de OaxacaCorrecaminos UATPiratas VeracruzAlebrijes de OaxacaAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazCancun FCAlebrijes de OaxacaAlebrijes de OaxacaAlacranes de DurangoAtletico MoreliaAlebrijes de OaxacaAlebrijes de OaxacaCD TapatioTampico MaderoAlebrijes de OaxacaAlebrijes de OaxacaCD Tepatitlan de MorelosTlaxcala FCAlebrijes de OaxacaAlebrijes de OaxacaDorados de SinaloaVenados FCAlebrijes de OaxacaCorrecaminos UATAlebrijes de OaxacaTampico MaderoAtletico La PazAtletico La PazTlaxcala FCCD TapatioAtletico La PazAtletico La PazVenados FCAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazAtletico La PazCorrecaminos UATLeones Negros UDGAtletico La PazAtletico La PazMineros de ZacatecasCancun FCAtletico La PazAtletico La PazCruz Azul HidalgoAtletico La PazPiratas VeracruzCD Tepatitlan de MorelosAtletico La PazAtletico La PazAlacranes de DurangoAtletico MoreliaAtletico La PazAtletico La PazTampico MaderoAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazAtletico La PazAlebrijes de OaxacaAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazAtletico La PazAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazAlebrijes de OaxacaAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazAtletico La PazAlebrijes de Oaxaca| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 33:18 | +15 | 27 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 31:19 | +12 | 27 |
| 3 |  Atletico Morelia | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25:16 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas Veracruz | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26:14 | +12 | 24 |
| 5 |  Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 31:25 | +6 | 24 |
| 6 |  Cancun FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26:18 | +8 | 22 |
| 7 |  Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18:14 | +4 | 21 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 27:27 | 0 | 19 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 14:25 | -11 | 19 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 18 |
| 11 |  CD Tapatio | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 24:27 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos UAT | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 |  Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 23:29 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 |  Tampico Madero | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15:23 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 |  CD Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 10:41 | -31 | 7 |
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz Prediction (Sep 25)
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz prediction for Sep 25, 2026, in Liga de Expansion MX. The match kicks off at 02:00, and Atletico La Paz are the most likely winner with a 40% probability, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 27% chance and the draw is at 33%.
Team Form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca have been inconsistent in their last five matches with results of L, W, L, D and L. They lost 3-0 away to Cancun FC on Sep 20, beat Alacranes de Durango 1-0 at home on Sep 11, lost 4-1 away to Atletico Morelia on Sep 6, drew 1-1 at home with CD Tapatio on Aug 28 and lost 2-1 away to Tampico Madero on Aug 23. Across those fixtures they scored 4 goals and conceded 10.
Atletico La Paz are in better shape with W, D, W, W and D in their last five. They beat Correcaminos UAT 3-1 on Sep 19, drew 2-2 away at Leones Negros UDG on Sep 13, beat Mineros de Zacatecas 3-0 on Sep 5, won 2-1 away at Cancun FC on Aug 28 and drew 1-1 with Cruz Azul Hidalgo on Aug 22. They scored 11 and conceded 5 in that run.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record strongly favors Atletico La Paz. In eight H2H matches, Atletico La Paz have 5 wins and 3 draws, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca have 0 wins.
- Mar 21, 2026: Atletico La Paz 4-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
- Oct 11, 2025: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 Atletico La Paz
- Apr 5, 2025: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 Atletico La Paz
- Oct 19, 2024: Atletico La Paz 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
- Mar 23, 2024: Atletico La Paz 2-1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
League Table Positions
Atletico La Paz are 2nd in the overall standings with 17 points from 9 matches: 5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 20 goals scored and 10 conceded. In away matches they are 3rd with 7 points from 4 games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 11 goals scored and 7 conceded. Alebrijes de Oaxaca are not listed among the top 12 teams in the supplied overall standings.
Win Probability: Alebrijes de Oaxaca or Atletico La Paz?
According to the data, Alebrijes de Oaxaca has a 27% chance of winning, the draw is at 33%, and Atletico La Paz has a 40% chance.
This conclusion uses the 1X2 odds as a base. The home win is priced from 2.90 to 3.10, the draw from 2.38 to 2.50 and the away win from 2.35 to 2.50. After removing the bookmaker margin, the market is close, but Atletico La Pazโs better recent form, higher league position and 5-3 head-to-head edge justify the away side as the likely winner.
Odds & Match Prediction
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz prediction: bookmakers see Atletico La Paz as a slight favorite, with the best away win odds at 2.50, the best home win odds at 3.10 and the best draw odds at 2.50 in the supplied markets.
Based on the stats, Atletico La Paz are the more likely team to win, but the draw carries a meaningful chance. The most probable outcome is an away win, with a 40% probability.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz โ FAQ
- Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz?
- Atletico La Paz are the more likely winner. The probability model gives Alebrijes de Oaxaca a 27% chance, the draw 33%, and Atletico La Paz 40%. This is based on the 1X2 odds, recent form, league table positions and head-to-head record.
- What is the win probability for Atletico La Paz?
- Atletico La Paz have a 40% win probability for this match. They are 2nd in the overall standings, are unbeaten in their last five matches with W, D, W, W, D, and have won 5 of 8 head-to-head meetings.
- When is the Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz match?
- The match is on Sep 25, 2026, at 02:00. It is played in Liga de Expansion MX, Mexico.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The supplied 1X2 odds range from 2.90 to 3.10 for an Alebrijes de Oaxaca win, 2.38 to 2.50 for the draw, and 2.35 to 2.50 for an Atletico La Paz win. The best listed odds are 3.10 for the home win, 2.50 for the draw and 2.50 for the away win.
- What is the head-to-head record between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Atletico La Paz?
- Atletico La Paz lead the head-to-head record with 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins. The most recent meeting on Mar 21, 2026 ended Atletico La Paz 4-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca.