Burundi - Algeria prediction 29 September 2026

The Burundi vs Algeria prediction for the African Cup of Nations match on September 29, 2026, answers the question of who will win this fixture. Algeria are the clear favorites, with a calculated win probability of 65%, while Burundi have just a 7% chance of pulling off an upset. The draw stands at 28%. The match kicks off at 14:00 local time.

Team Form

Burundi’s Last Five Matches

• Sep 25, 2026: Togo 1-0 Burundi (African Cup of Nations) – Loss
• Jun 4, 2026: Burundi 0-0 Equatorial Guinea (Friendly) – Draw
• May 26, 2026: Morocco 5-0 Burundi (Friendly) – Loss
• Mar 31, 2026: Burundi 4-0 Chad (African Cup of Nations) – Win
• Mar 27, 2026: Chad 0-4 Burundi (African Cup of Nations) – Win

Burundi’s form is mixed. The two wins came against a weak Chad side, but they failed to score against Togo and Morocco, conceding five against the latter. Their defense looks vulnerable against quality opposition.

Algeria’s Last Five Matches

• Sep 25, 2026: Algeria 3-1 Zambia (African Cup of Nations) – Win
• Aug 26, 2026: Algeria 2-0 Albania (Friendly) – Win
• Jul 3, 2026: Switzerland 2-0 Algeria (World Cup) – Loss
• Jun 28, 2026: Algeria 3-3 Austria (World Cup) – Draw
• Jun 23, 2026: Jordan 1-2 Algeria (World Cup) – Win

Algeria have been impressive, especially in attack. They scored three against Zambia and Austria, and beat Jordan away. The only blemish was a loss to a strong Switzerland side. Overall, Algeria are in much better shape than Burundi.

Head-to-Head Record

The two nations have faced each other twice:

• Jan 9, 2024: Burundi 0-4 Algeria (Friendly)
• Jun 11, 2019: Algeria 1-1 Burundi (Friendly)

Algeria are unbeaten with one win and one draw. The aggregate score is 5-1. Burundi have never beaten Algeria, and the most recent meeting was a one-sided affair.

Win Probability: Burundi or Algeria?

To determine the true chances, we started with the average bookmaker odds (Burundi 10.29, draw 2.93, Algeria 1.55). After removing the overround, the implied probabilities were 9% for a home win, 31.5% for a draw, and 59.5% for an away win. We then adjusted for current form and head-to-head history. Algeria’s strong recent results and dominant record against Burundi push their probability to 65%. Burundi’s poor defensive record and inability to beat Algeria reduce their chance to 7%. The draw probability settles at 28%.

In short, Algeria have a 65% chance to win, the draw is at 28%, and Burundi’s win probability is just 7%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering odds around 1.55–1.70 for an Algeria victory, with the draw at 2.22–2.50 and a Burundi win as high as 13.50. These odds confirm Algeria as the strong favorite. Our match prediction is an Algeria win. For betting tips, the straight win offers low returns, so alternative markets like Algeria -1 handicap or under/over goals might be worth exploring. Based on the stats, Algeria are likely to score at least two goals.