Cacahuatique - Alianza FC El Salvador prediction 17 October 2026

The Cacahuatique vs Alianza FC El Salvador prediction for October 17, 2026, points to an away victory in El Salvador's Primera Division. Based on head-to-head dominance, league table positions, and recent form, Alianza FC El Salvador enters this match as the clear favorite with a 58% win probability. Cacahuatique, struggling at the bottom of the standings, faces an uphill battle even at home.

Team Form

Cacahuatique's recent home results show a worrying trend: L, L, W, L, D in their last five outings. They suffered a 2-1 defeat at Fuerte San Francisco on October 10 and a heavy 4-1 loss at CD Aguila El Salvador on October 3. The lone win came against Atletico Balboa (2-0) on September 29, but losses to Isidro Metapan (2-0) and a goalless draw with Luis Angel Firpo on September 24 highlight inconsistency. With only one victory in that stretch, confidence is low.

Alianza FC El Salvador's away form reads D, L, D, W, D over the same period. A 2-2 draw at Inter Formando Un Atleta on October 12 and a 2-1 loss at CD FAS on October 9 are mixed results. The 2-2 stalemate at Luis Angel Firpo on October 4 and a 2-1 win at CD Platense Zacatecoluca on October 1 show they can score but also concede. The 1-1 draw at CD Inca on September 27 underlines a pattern of tight contests. Alianza is hard to beat but not always convincing on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Alianza FC El Salvador. In 11 previous meetings, Cacahuatique has won just once, with 2 draws and 8 Alianza victories. The last five clashes underline this dominance: a 0-0 draw on August 16, 2026, a 2-1 Alianza win on March 19, 2026, a 1-1 draw on January 21, 2026, a 3-0 Alianza away win on December 14, 2025, and a 2-1 Alianza home win on December 7, 2025. Cacahuatique has failed to beat Alianza in any of those encounters, scoring only 2 goals while conceding 8.

League Table Positions

Cacahuatique sits 12th (last) in the Primera Division with 11 points from 15 matches (2 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses). They have scored 15 goals and conceded 26, a goal difference of -11. Alianza FC El Salvador is 6th with 19 points from 14 games (4 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses), a goal difference of +1 (22 scored, 21 conceded). The 8-point gap and the fact that Alianza has played one game fewer emphasize the gulf in quality. At home, Cacahuatique is not among the top eight sides, while Alianza's home form is solid (5th, unbeaten in 8 home matches). Away from home, Cacahuatique ranks 8th with 6 points from 7 trips; Alianza's away record is not in the top eight, but their overall resilience makes them dangerous.

Win Probability: Cacahuatique or Alianza FC El Salvador?

After analyzing all available data, the win probabilities are: Cacahuatique 15%, draw 27%, Alianza FC El Salvador 58%. These percentages are derived from the head-to-head record (Alianza won 73% of past meetings), current form (Cacahuatique's 1-1-3 home run vs. Alianza's 1-3-1 away run), and the 8-point league table gap. Home advantage gives Cacahuatique a slight boost, but their bottom-place standing and poor scoring record make an upset unlikely. Alianza's tendency to draw away games keeps the draw probability relatively high. The conclusion is clear: Alianza FC El Salvador is the more likely winner, but a draw cannot be ruled out.

Cacahuatique vs Alianza FC El Salvador Prediction & Betting Tips

Odds for this match are not currently available in the provided data. However, based on the statistical analysis, bookmakers would likely price Alianza FC El Salvador as the favorite. The recommended betting tip is to back an Alianza win or a double chance (Alianza or draw) given their superior H2H record and league position. The total goals trend suggests under 2.5 goals, as four of the last five H2H meetings featured two or fewer goals, and Alianza's recent away matches have been low-scoring. Cacahuatique's attack has managed only 15 goals in 15 league games, further supporting a low-scoring contest. Our final match prediction is an Alianza FC El Salvador victory, most likely by a one-goal margin.