Alianza FC El Salvador - Luis Angel Firpo prediction 4 October 2026

Alianza FC El Salvador vs Luis Angel Firpo prediction for the Primera Division match on Oct 4, 2026. Based on the stats, Alianza FC El Salvador has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Luis Angel Firpo has a 25% chance. The game kicks off at 02:00 and pits an unbeaten home side against a team with a poor away record.

Team Form

Alianza FC El Salvador come into this match with a string of draws. Their last five results read D, D, W, D, D. They drew 1-1 with CD Inca on Sep 27, 2-2 with Fuerte San Francisco on Sep 24, beat Municipal Limeno 3-2 on Sep 20, and recorded goalless draws against CD FAS (0-0) and a 2-2 at CD Aguila El Salvador. While unbeaten in five, only one win suggests a lack of cutting edge.

Luis Angel Firpo have been more decisive. Their last five: W, D, W, L, W. They beat CD Aguila El Salvador 2-0 on Sep 27, drew 0-0 with Cacahuatique on Sep 24, defeated Atletico Balboa 3-1 on Sep 21, lost 2-1 at Isidro Metapan on Sep 14, and thrashed Inter Formando Un Atleta 3-0 on Sep 7. Three wins in five, but the only loss came away from home – a potential warning sign.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Alianza FC El Salvador dominate this fixture with 23 wins to Luis Angel Firpo's 4, plus 14 draws. However, recent meetings are more balanced. In the last five clashes, Firpo won twice, Alianza once, and two ended level. The most recent encounter on Mar 22, 2026, saw Firpo win 2-1 at home. Before that, Firpo also won 3-2 at Alianza's ground in January 2026. The last draw was a 0-0 in December 2025.

League Table Positions

Luis Angel Firpo sit 3rd in the overall Primera Division standings with 21 points from 11 games (6W, 3D, 2L). Alianza FC El Salvador are 6th with 14 points from 10 matches (3W, 5D, 2L). The home/away split reveals a key trend: Alianza are unbeaten at home this season (2W, 3D, 9 points from 5 games), while Firpo have taken just 2 points from their 3 away trips (0W, 2D, 1L) and do not appear in the top eight of the away standings. This stark contrast gives Alianza a clear home advantage.

Win Probability: Alianza FC El Salvador or Luis Angel Firpo?

After analyzing the available data – team form, head-to-head record, league positions, and home/away performance – we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Alianza FC El Salvador win: 40%
• Draw: 35%
• Luis Angel Firpo win: 25%

Alianza’s unbeaten home record and historical H2H dominance (23 wins to 4) underpin their favorite status. However, their recent draw-heavy form and Firpo’s overall stronger league campaign add uncertainty. Firpo’s poor away record (no wins in three attempts) significantly reduces their chances. A draw is a very realistic outcome given Alianza’s four draws in five and Firpo’s two away draws this season.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not currently available for this fixture. Based purely on the stats, Alianza FC El Salvador are the most likely winners, but the high probability of a draw cannot be ignored. Our prediction leans towards a home win or draw (double chance 1X), with Alianza’s home solidity giving them the edge over a Firpo side that struggles on the road.