Alianza FC Panama - CA Independiente de la Chorrera prediction 29 September 2026

The Alianza FC Panama vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera prediction for the LPF match on Sep 29 at 02:00 points to Alianza FC Panama as the favorite. Based on odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Alianza FC Panama has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 33%, and CA Independiente de la Chorrera has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Alianza FC Panama's last five matches show one win, three draws, and one loss. They drew 0-0 with CD Universitario, lost 2-1 to Veraguas FC, drew 1-1 with San Francisco, drew 2-2 with Union Cocle, and beat Tauro FC 2-0. Alianza FC Panama has been difficult to beat, but too many draws have limited their climb. CA Independiente de la Chorrera has two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five: a 4-3 win over Sporting San Miguelito, a 2-2 draw with Plaza Amador, a 2-0 loss to UMECIT, a 2-1 loss to Tauro FC, and a 3-0 win over Union Cocle. Their form is more volatile with two wins and two losses in five.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head record, Alianza FC Panama has 6 wins, CA Independiente de la Chorrera has 5 wins, and there have been 16 draws. The last five meetings are:

• May 6 2026: Alianza FC Panama 2-2 CA Independiente de la Chorrera
• Mar 15 2026: Alianza FC Panama 1-0 CA Independiente de la Chorrera
• Aug 31 2025: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 2-2 Alianza FC Panama
• Feb 27 2025: Alianza FC Panama 1-1 CA Independiente de la Chorrera
• Mar 9 2024: CA Independiente de la Chorrera 5-1 Alianza FC Panama

League Table Positions

Alianza FC Panama sits 2nd in the LPF overall table with 27 points from 16 matches (6 wins, 9 draws, 1 loss). CA Independiente de la Chorrera is 8th with 20 points (4 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses). At home, Alianza FC Panama is unbeaten: 4 wins and 4 draws in 8 matches. CA Independiente de la Chorrera's away record is 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses.

Win Probability: Alianza FC Panama or CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

Based on the odds and the team data, Alianza FC Panama has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 33%, and CA Independiente de la Chorrera has a 25% chance. The odds implied roughly 38% for Alianza, 35% for a draw, and 27% for CA Independiente. We adjusted the probabilities upward for Alianza because of their higher league position, unbeaten home record, and a 1-0 home win in the most recent head-to-head match. CA Independiente's mixed away form and lower table position reduce their win probability. The draw remains relatively high due to 16 draws in the 27-match head-to-head history.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this match vary. The home win is priced between 2.20 and 2.32, a draw between 2.02 and 3.22, and an away win between 2.90 and 3.40. These odds make Alianza FC Panama the favorite, but the draw odds are close for some bookmakers. Our final prediction: based on the stats, Alianza FC Panama is more likely to win, but a draw is a significant possibility. Betting tips should consider the high draw frequency in this fixture.