Almere City - Volendam prediction 3 October 2026

Our Almere City vs Volendam prediction for the 1 Eerste Divisie match on Oct 3, 2026, points to a strong home win, with Almere City holding a 55% win probability. The bookmakers’ odds and league table positions underline the hosts as clear favourites against a Volendam side that has struggled desperately on the road. The match kicks off at 19:00 local time.

Team Form

Almere City’s Recent Results

Almere City have recorded three wins in their last five matches (W-L-W-W-L). A 4-1 demolition of De Graafschap (Aug 29) and a 4-0 thrashing of MVV Maastricht (Sep 11) highlighted their attacking threat, but successive home defeats – 0-1 against Jong Ajax (Sep 4) and a 2-3 loss at Dordrecht (Sep 25) – exposed occasional defensive lapses. At home, they have won two of three league fixtures this season, scoring 1 and conceding 1 across those matches after the Jong Ajax setback. Overall, Almere City boast the second-best defence in the division with only 7 goals conceded in 8 games.

Volendam’s Recent Results

Volendam’s form is a classic case of Jekyll and Hyde. The side has won all four home matches – a staggering 14 goals scored and only 3 conceded – but has lost all four away games, shipping 12 goals and picking up zero points. Their recent five results perfectly mirror this split: a 3-2 home win over VVV Venlo (Sep 26), a 1-4 thrashing at Jong AZ Alkmaar (Sep 18), a 2-0 home win against Den Bosch (Sep 13), a 5-3 defeat at Emmen (Sep 4), and a 6-1 home demolition of Dordrecht (Aug 28). On the road, Volendam have conceded at least four goals in three of their four away defeats.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Almere City have dominated this fixture with 10 wins to Volendam’s 5 in 20 meetings, plus 5 draws. The last competitive clash in the 2023–24 Eredivisie season ended 1-1 at Almere City (Mar 31, 2024), while Almere City won the reverse fixture 1-0 at Volendam (Jan 14, 2024). A more recent friendly on Jul 15, 2026 saw Almere City prevail 2-1. Overall, Almere City are unbeaten in the last three encounters (W2 D1).

League Table Positions

After eight rounds, Almere City sit 2nd in the 1 Eerste Divisie with 16 points (5W-1D-2L) and a +11 goal difference (18:7). Volendam are 11th with 12 points (4W-0D-4L), but some crucial details change the picture. The home table shows Volendam in 3rd with a perfect 4-0-0 record (14:3 goals), yet the away table is a desert: Volendam have not earned a single point, losing all four away matches. Almere City, meanwhile, have the league’s best away record (10 points from 5 games), while their home form is solid – 2 wins and 1 loss from 3 matches. This contrast gives the hosts a significant edge.

Win Probability: Almere City or Volendam?

To calculate the fair probabilities, we first took the average bookmaker odds (home 1.94, draw 2.61, away 3.25) and removed the overround. The market-implied chances before adjustment were: Almere City win 43%, draw 32%, Volendam win 26%. However, these odds do not fully account for Volendam’s catastrophic away form – zero points, 12 goals conceded in four trips. Adjusting for the massive gulf in away performance and Almere City’s own strong league position, we raise the home win probability significantly. Our final estimated outcome percentages are:

• Almere City win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Volendam win: 20%

Almere City has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Volendam has a 20% chance. This conclusion is based on the stats: Almere City’s 2nd place, the H2H advantage of 10 wins to 5, and the home-field factor against a team that cannot perform on its travels.

Odds & Almere City vs Volendam Prediction

The best bookmaker odds obtained from several sources show a home win priced between 1.90 and 1.98, the draw at 2.52–2.70, and an away victory at 3.10–3.60. Bookmakers clearly see Almere City as the favourite, but the odds still look attractive given Volendam’s road struggles. Our match prediction aligns with the numbers: Almere City to win. The 55% probability suggests value on the home win at around 1.90. A high-scoring affair can also be expected – Almere City average 2.25 goals per game, and Volendam’s away matches have seen an average of 4.5 total goals.