Real Sociedad B - Almeria prediction 17 October 2026

This Real Sociedad B vs Almeria prediction breaks down the Segunda match on October 17, 2026, at Campo José Luis Orbegozo (San Sebastian). Our analysis of odds, form, head-to-head, and league standings points to Almeria as the strong favourite, with an estimated 55% win probability.

Team Form

Real Sociedad B come into this match in poor form, having lost four of their last five matches (L, L, L, L, W). At home, they recently fell 2-3 to Granada CF and 0-1 to Mallorca. The sole bright spot was a 3-1 away win over FC Andorra on September 12.

Almeria, in contrast, are in scintillating shape with five consecutive victories. They beat Leganes 3-0, Burgos CF 2-1, Mallorca 1-0, Celta Vigo B 2-0, and Cordoba CF 2-0. The team has scored 10 goals and conceded only 1 in that run, showcasing both offensive threat and defensive solidity.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head heavily favours Almeria. Across four previous meetings, Almeria have won three times (5-1 and 3-1 at home, 2-0 away) and drawn once (2-2 at Real Sociedad B). Real Sociedad B have never beaten Almeria, managing just one draw. The most recent match, on March 29, 2026, ended in a 5-1 thrashing by Almeria.

• Mar 29, 2026: Almeria 5-1 Real Sociedad B
• Aug 29, 2025: Real Sociedad B 2-2 Almeria
• May 13, 2022: Real Sociedad B 0-2 Almeria
• Oct 21, 2021: Almeria 3-1 Real Sociedad B

League Table Positions

Almeria sit 2nd in the Segunda overall standings with 21 points from 9 matches (7 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). Their home form is impeccable: 1st with 15 points from 5 home games (all wins). Real Sociedad B are outside the top 12 and also absent from the top 8 home standings, underlining their struggles at Campo José Luis Orbegozo. In the away table, Real Sociedad B are 5th (7 points from 5 games), but that matters less here as they host this fixture. The gulf in quality and consistency is substantial.

Win Probability: Real Sociedad B or Almeria?

Bookmakers’ average prices imply the following chances after removing the margin: Real Sociedad B win 26%, draw 34%, Almeria win 40%. We then adjust for the extreme contrast in recent form and head-to-head dominance. Real Sociedad B’s four losses in five outings and zero wins in four H2H meetings drag their probability down, while Almeria’s perfect five-match run pushes theirs up.

Our adjusted win probabilities are: Real Sociedad B 20%, draw 25%, Almeria 55%. Almeria are the clear most likely winner based on the form, historical record, and their superior league position.

Odds & Match Prediction

Current odds from various bookmakers for the 1X2 market range as follows:

• Real Sociedad B home win: 3.20 – 3.75
• Draw: 2.25 – 3.80
• Almeria away win: 2.06 – 2.45

Bookmakers see Almeria as the favourite, albeit with a modest edge. Considering all data, the most likely outcome is an Almeria victory. Real Sociedad B’s poor recent performances and Almeria’s momentum make the away win the safest prediction. A draw cannot be ruled out, but the weight of evidence points strongly to Almeria securing all three points on October 17.