Nafta Lendava - Aluminij prediction 28 October 2026

The Nafta Lendava vs Aluminij prediction points towards a tight contest when these two sides meet on Oct 28 at 16:00 in the Slovenian 1st League. Based on our analysis of team form, head-to-head record, and league standings, Nafta Lendava enters as the slight favorite with a win probability of roughly 45%, compared to Aluminij’s 30%. The draw is estimated at 25%.

Team Form

Nafta Lendava comes into this match with solid recent results at home, recording three wins and two defeats in their last five league games. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 away draw against Mura, preceded by a 1-0 home victory over NK Bravo. Earlier, they fell 2-0 at Koper, beat Brinje-Grosuplje 2-1 on the road, and defeated NK Radomlje 3-1 at home. This run of form shows they are capable of scoring, having netted six times in those five matches.

Aluminij’s recent away form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded one win, two draws, and two losses. Their most recent league matches include a 0-1 home defeat to Olimpija Ljubljana and a 0-1 away loss at Celje. They also played a goalless friendly draw against NK Varazdin, drew 2-2 away at NK Maribor, and secured an impressive 6-1 away win at Mura. While the win at Mura highlights their potential, back-to-back league losses raise concerns.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between Aluminij and Nafta Lendava have been evenly matched, with one win apiece and three draws. The most recent encounter on Aug 9, 2026, in the 1st League ended in a 1-1 draw. Notably, Nafta’s last victory came in a 2021 friendly, while Aluminij won 3-1 away in a 2022 2 SNL fixture. The high frequency of draws in this fixture supports a cautious assessment of the upcoming match.

League Table Positions

Nafta Lendava currently sits 5th in the overall 1st League standings with 17 points from 12 games (5 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses). They have scored 18 goals and conceded 16. At home, they are 4th with 9 points from 6 matches, though their home record shows a perfect split of three wins and three defeats. Aluminij is 7th overall, holding 13 points from 12 games (3 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses), scoring 16 and conceding 13. Away from home, Aluminij ranks 7th with 7 points from 5 road games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 11 and conceding 6. The four-point gap and Nafta’s superior home rank give them a slight edge.

Win Probability: Nafta Lendava or Aluminij?

Calculating the win probability based on available odds and team stats, Nafta Lendava has a 45% chance of winning, the draw stands at 25%, and Aluminij has a 30% chance. The probability calculation starts with the inverse of the average odds (approx. 2.29 for Nafta, 2.28 for draw, 2.89 for Aluminij), which gives raw implied chances of 43.7%, 43.9%, and 34.6%. After normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, the base probabilities are adjusted downward for the draw and upward for the underdog based on Aluminij’s inconsistent recent form and Nafta’s home advantage. Historically, this matchup leans toward a draw, but Nafta’s higher league position and home field tilt the balance in their favor.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of 1X2 odds for this fixture. The most balanced odds show a home win for Nafta Lendava at 2.35, a draw at 2.25, and an Aluminij away win at 2.88. Other bookmakers quote similar lines, with one outlier offering a low 1.78 on the Nafta win. Overall, the odds reflect a very open game with no strong favorite. Our Nafta Lendava vs Aluminij prediction acknowledges the data: Nafta’s better form and home advantage suggest they are the more likely winner, but the high draw probability and head-to-head history mean betting tips should consider the draw as a very real outcome. Based on the stats, the most probable match outcome is a narrow Nafta Lendava victory or a score draw.