Aluminij - NK Varazdin prediction 2 October 2026

The Aluminij vs NK Varazdin prediction for this Friendly Clubs match on October 2, 2026, points to an away win. Based on the latest odds and team form, NK Varazdin enters as the favorite with a 45% win probability, while Aluminij has just a 20% chance, and the draw stands at 35%.

Team Form

Aluminij have struggled for consistency in their last five outings (D, W, D, L, L). They managed a 6-1 away win over Mura but followed it with a 2-2 draw at NK Maribor. At home, the picture is bleak: a 0-0 draw with NK Bravo, a 0-2 loss to Celje, and a 0-1 defeat to Koper. That’s three home matches without a win and no goals scored in the last two at home.

NK Varazdin, on the other hand, are unbeaten in their last five (D, D, W, D, W). They drew 0-0 at home with Osijek, 2-2 away at HNK Gorica, and 0-0 at home with Istra 1961. Their wins came in a 4-0 cup demolition of Zagora and a 2-0 home victory over Rudes. Away from home, Varazdin have scored six goals in two matches, conceding only two.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between Aluminij and NK Varazdin. This will be their first ever meeting, so no past results can be used to gauge the matchup.

Win Probability: Aluminij or NK Varazdin?

We calculate the outcome probabilities using the average bookmaker odds (home 3.98, draw 2.41, away 2.19) as a base, then adjust for recent form and home/away performance. The raw implied probabilities gave NK Varazdin a 40.7% chance, but their unbeaten run and Aluminij’s poor home form push the away win probability to 45%. The draw remains a strong possibility at 35%, while Aluminij’s win chance drops to 20%.

In short: NK Varazdin has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Aluminij has a 20% chance. Varazdin’s solid defense and ability to score on the road make them the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see NK Varazdin as the clear favorite. The average odds across four bookmakers are: Aluminij win – 3.98, Draw – 2.41, NK Varazdin win – 2.19. The lowest away price is 2.10, while the highest home price is 4.20, confirming the market’s view.

Based on the stats, the Aluminij vs NK Varazdin prediction is an away victory for NK Varazdin. However, given the high draw probability, a low-scoring stalemate cannot be ruled out. The safest betting tip would be to back Varazdin on the ‘Draw No Bet’ market if available, or simply take the away win at odds around 2.19.