Ermis Koridalou - Ampelakiakos prediction 14 October 2026

The Ampelakiakos vs Ermis Koridalou prediction points to an away victory in the Greece Regional Cup on October 14, 2026. With kick-off at 14:00, Ampelakiakos enters this match as the clear favorite, carrying a 55% win probability based on head-to-head dominance, stronger recent form, and bookmaker odds. Ermis Koridalou, struggling with four losses in their last five outings, faces an uphill battle even at home.

Team Form

Ermis Koridalou (home) are in poor shape with a form line of D, L, L, L, L across their last five matches. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw against Ionikos Nicea FC in the Regional Cup on October 23, 2024, but that preceded a crushing 1-4 home defeat to Aetos Koridallou and a 5-0 away thrashing by Agios Ierotheos in Super League 2. Ermis have failed to win any of those five games, conceding heavily.

Ampelakiakos (away) travel with a recent record of L, D, D, W, W. Their latest match on October 15, 2025, ended in a 1-0 loss at Polikratis in the Regional Cup, but prior to that they posted back-to-back wins against Ermis Koridalou (2-1 in March 2020) and recorded draws against Ae Moshatou (2-2) and Peramaikos (0-0). The away side’s form is mixed, but clearly superior to that of their hosts.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met five times, always in domestic cup competitions, and the head-to-head is utterly one-sided: Ampelakiakos have won all five encounters, with Ermis Koridalou yet to register a win or even a draw. Every match finished 2-1 to Ampelakiakos, who were the home side on each occasion. The most recent meeting took place on March 4, 2020, in the Cup. Given that perfect H2H run, Ampelakiakos will be confident of extending that streak, even away from home this time.

League Table Positions

This is a Regional Cup fixture, so league positions are not directly applicable and no table data is available. The analysis therefore focuses on head-to-head history and recent performances rather than league standing.

Win Probability: Ampelakiakos or Ermis Koridalou?

Starting from the odds – home win 2.80 (implied probability 32.2%), draw 4.00 (22.6%), away win 2.00 (45.2%) – we adjust for the stark H2H imbalance and current form. Ermis Koridalou have zero wins in their last five, while Ampelakiakos have two victories in the same span, including two over Ermis. Home advantage counts for little given the host’s dreadful record. After normalization and adjustment, we calculate the probabilities as follows:

• Ampelakiakos win – 55%
• Draw – 25%
• Ermis Koridalou win – 20%

Ampelakiakos therefore has a significantly higher chance of winning this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a home win at 2.80, a draw at 4.00, and an away win at 2.00, clearly marking Ampelakiakos as the favorite. Based on the head-to-head record (5-0 to Ampelakiakos), the contrasting recent form, and the probability model, the most likely outcome is an away victory. Ampelakiakos are predicted to win, with a 55% chance of taking all three points – or, in a knock-out cup context, advancing to the next round.