Andijan - Qizilqum Zarafshon prediction 15 October 2026

The Andijan vs Qizilqum Zarafshon prediction for October 15, 2026, in the Uzbekistan Super League sees the bookmakers lean toward a home win, but deeper analysis shows a much tighter contest. Andijan holds a 40% win probability according to our adjusted model, while the visitors carry a genuine threat with a 30% chance of victory.

Team Form

Andijan’s recent form is patchy, with just one win in their last five outings (L, L, D, W, L). A 3-2 away loss to FK Buxoro on Oct 9 and a heavy 4-1 home defeat to Nasaf Qarshi highlight defensive issues. Their sole victory came at home against FK Kokand 1912 (2-1), but they failed to score in two of those five matches.

Qizilqum Zarafshon enter with much better momentum: D, W, L, W, W in their last five. After a 0-0 draw with Surkhon Termez on Oct 10, they had recorded convincing wins over Xorazm FK Urganch (3-1 away) and Nasaf Qarshi (1-0 at home). Only a narrow 1-0 loss at Dinamo Samarqand interrupts a solid run.

Head-to-Head Record

The 14-match history between these sides shows 3 home wins for Andijan, 6 draws, and 5 away wins for Qizilqum. The most recent encounters strongly favor the visitors: Qizilqum are unbeaten in the last five meetings (3 wins, 2 draws). In the 2026 league season, Qizilqum already beat Andijan 2-1 at home in March, and they also won 4-0 away in a Cup tie in April 2025. Andijan’s last home result against them was a 1-1 draw in June 2025.

League Table Positions

Both teams sit on 30 points after 23 rounds, with Qizilqum 9th and Andijan 10th on goal difference. Andijan’s home record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses (19 points, 8th in home table). Qizilqum’s away performance is weaker: only 3 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses on the road, which explains why they are absent from the top-8 away standings. Both sides have defensive vulnerabilities, but Andijan’s home advantage is partly offset by their recent slump.

Win Probability: Andijan or Qizilqum Zarafshon?

Using the best available 1X2 odds (home 1.77, draw 3.63, away 4.85) and removing the bookmaker margin, the implied probabilities are 54% for a home win, 26% for a draw, and 20% for an away win. However, this raw numbers ignore the strong head-to-head trend and current form. Our adjusted win probability calculation gives Andijan a 40% chance, a draw a 30% chance, and Qizilqum Zarafshon a 30% chance. Home advantage keeps Andijan slightly ahead, but Qizilqum’s excellent recent results against them and better form make this a genuine 50/50 call.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best odds available show Andijan to win at 1.77, a draw at 3.63, and Qizilqum Zarafshon at 4.85. Bookmakers clearly see Andijan as the favorite, but the value may lie with the draw or the away side given the stats. Based on the form, H2H record, and table positions, this match is most likely to end in a draw or a narrow win for either team. A 1-1 scoreline reflects the probabilities.