Malta - Andorra prediction 4 October 2026

The Andorra vs Malta prediction for their September 24, 2026 UEFA Nations League clash points to a tight, low-scoring affair. The match kicks off at 17:00 local time at Nou Estadi in Encamp. Based on the odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Andorra has a 25% chance of winning, the draw is the most likely outcome at 40%, and Malta holds a 35% winning probability.

Team Form

Andorra’s last five matches (L, W, L, D, L) show just one victory – a 2-0 friendly win at home against Liechtenstein on June 4, 2026. They also earned a 0-0 draw away to San Marino, but lost to Kosovo (3-0), Iraq (1-0 at home), and Montenegro (2-0). That gives them four points from a possible 15.

Malta’s recent form reads W, L, L, L, L. Their sole win came away at Azerbaijan (2-0) on June 5, 2026. Otherwise they lost to Slovakia (2-1), Luxembourg twice (3-0 away, 2-0 home), and Bosnia-Herzegovina (4-1 at home). Malta collected just three points from their last five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

The two sides have met four times previously, all in the UEFA Nations League. Malta have never lost, winning twice and drawing twice. The most recent encounter (November 19, 2024) ended 0-0 in Malta. Andorra held them to a goalless draw at home in October 2020, but Malta won both other meetings 3-1 (in November 2020). H2H summary:

• Andorra wins: 0
• Draws: 2
• Malta wins: 2

League Table Positions

The provided standings for the UEFA Nations League group do not contain Andorra or Malta, so no direct table position comparison can be made. Both teams are likely competing in a different group or stage of the competition.

Win Probability: Andorra or Malta?

Andorra win: 25% | Draw: 40% | Malta win: 35%.

Bookmaker odds heavily favour the draw (average ~2.19), with a home win priced around 3.57 and an away win ~2.95. That raw implied probability gives the draw a 42.4% chance, Malta 31.5%, Andorra 26.0%. We adjust slightly for form and head-to-head: Andorra’s slightly better recent points return (4 vs 3) is offset by Malta’s unbeaten H2H record (W2 D2). Home advantage at Nou Estadi has not historically helped Andorra break their winless run against Malta. Therefore, a draw remains the single most probable outcome, but Malta emerges as a marginally more likely winner than the hosts.

Odds & Match Prediction

Across bookmakers, 1X2 odds range as follows:

• Andorra win: 3.40 to 4.00
• Draw: 1.80 to 2.88
• Malta win: 2.46 to 2.90

These prices confirm that the market considers a draw the likeliest result, with Malta slightly favoured over Andorra. Based on the stats, a low-scoring draw or a narrow Malta victory are the most realistic outcomes. Punters seeking betting tips should note that Andorra have managed just one win in their last five, while Malta have struggled even more, so a goal-shy affair is probable.