Antofagasta - San Marcos De Arica prediction 11 October 2026

The Antofagasta vs San Marcos De Arica prediction for the Primera B clash on October 11, 2026, points toward a tight contest with the home side holding a moderate edge. Based on league standings, recent form, head-to-head balance, and bookmaker odds, Antofagasta enters this match with a 48% win probability, while the draw sits at 30% and San Marcos De Arica has a 22% chance of an away victory.

Team Form

Antofagasta’s last five league results show two wins, one draw, and two losses. They beat Rangers de Talca 2-0 at home and crushed Deportes Copiapo 4-0 away, but fell 1-2 to Cd San Luis and 1-2 to Deportes Recoleta, with a goalless home draw against Cobreloa in between. San Marcos De Arica have been slightly better over the same stretch, securing three wins and two defeats. They won away at Deportes Santa Cruz (2-1), beat Curico Unido 3-0 at home, edged Deportes Copiapo 2-1, and lost twice — 1-2 at Deportes Recoleta and 0-2 at Cobreloa. That recent uptick gives the visitors some momentum, but Antofagasta’s big 4-0 away win indicates they can be dangerous on their day.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record is perfectly balanced with 2 home wins, 2 draws, and 2 away wins across six encounters. The most recent result on May 17, 2026, ended 1-1 in San Marcos’s stadium; before that, a 0-0 draw in August 2025 and a 2-3 away win for San Marcos at Antofagasta in April 2025. Antofagasta’s last win over this opponent came at home in March 2024 (2-1). So the last three meetings have all gone in favor of San Marcos De Arica or ended level, suggesting the visitors know how to frustrate Antofagasta.

League Table Positions

Antofagasta sit 5th in the Primera B with 41 points from 26 games (11 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses), scoring 44 goals and conceding 26. They are a formidable home side — 3rd in the home standings with 7 wins, 4 draws, and only 2 losses at their own stadium, with a +14 goal difference (23-9). San Marcos De Arica are 7th on 39 points (10 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses) and have a solid away record: 4th best in the division with 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses on the road. The two-point gap and Antofagasta’s home strength give them a clear statistical advantage, but San Marcos are no pushovers away.

Win Probability: Antofagasta or San Marcos?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Antofagasta win – 48%, draw – 30%, San Marcos De Arica win – 22%. This assessment starts from bookmaker odds (home 1.83, draw 2.20, away 4.33), which after removing the margin imply a 44.4% home win, 36.9% draw, and 18.7% away win. Adjustments are made for Antofagasta’s superior home form (53.8% home win rate) and league position, but also for San Marcos’s decent away numbers and the fact the visitors have taken 5 points from the last 3 H2H meetings. The final percentages reflect that Antofagasta are the more likely winners, but the draw remains a realistic outcome and an away win cannot be dismissed.

Odds & Match Prediction

Top bookmakers price an Antofagasta win at 1.75–1.83, a draw at 2.12–2.20, and a San Marcos De Arica victory at 3.90–4.33. These odds clearly identify the home team as the favorite. Our prediction, based on the stats, aligns with the market but gives a slightly higher chance to Antofagasta (48%) than the bare odds imply, thanks to their powerful home defense and goal-scoring ability. A draw is the second-most probable outcome, while San Marcos De Arica would need a repeat of their April 2025 upset to snatch all three points.