Arema Indonesia - Bali United Persisam prediction 31 October 2026

The Arema Indonesia vs Bali United Persisam prediction for this Liga 1 clash on Oct 31 at 08:30 UTC points to an away win as the most likely outcome. Our win probability calculation gives Bali United Persisam a 40% chance of taking all three points, with a draw at 36% and an Arema Indonesia victory at 24%.

Team Form

Arema Indonesia come into this match with mixed recent results: W, L, L, D, D in their last five. A commanding 4-0 home win over Dewa United Banten FC on Oct 25 was followed by two tough away defeats – 5-1 at Persija Jakarta and 3-1 at Garudayaksa – before successive home draws (2-2 vs Bhayangkara Surabaya United, 1-1 vs Persik Kediri). At home this season they remain unbeaten, collecting 8 points from 4 games (2 wins, 2 draws) with 11 goals scored and only 3 conceded.

Bali United Persisam’s form reads D, W, L, W, L. High-scoring home demolitions (5-0 vs Garudayaksa, 6-1 vs Persijap Jepara) contrast with a worrying away sequence: a 1-1 draw at Persita Tangerang, a 3-2 loss at Malut United and a 1-0 defeat at Borneo Samarinda. That leaves them without an away win in three attempts, scoring just 3 goals and conceding 5 on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head across 16 meetings reads 6 Arema Indonesia wins, 1 draw, 9 Bali United Persisam wins. The last five encounters heavily favour the visitors: Bali United have won four, including a 4-3 victory at Arema in March 2026 and a 3-1 away win in July 2023. Arema’s only recent home success was a 1-0 result in February 2025. These matches tend to deliver goals – 18 in the last five meetings, an average of 3.6 per game.

League Table Positions

Bali United Persisam sit 3rd in Liga 1 with 13 points from 7 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses; 20 goals for, 8 against). Arema Indonesia are 10th with 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses; 16 scored, 14 conceded). The gap is four points, but the home/away split tells a more nuanced story: Arema’s undefeated home record (2W-2D-0L) places them 7th in the home table, while Bali United are yet to win away (0W-1D-2L, 1 point) and are not in the top eight for away form.

Win Probability: Arema Indonesia or Bali United Persisam?

Our mandatory win probability calculation, derived from bookmaker odds and adjusted for form, H2H and home advantage, is: Arema Indonesia win – 24%, Draw – 36%, Bali United Persisam win – 40%. The odds base (inverse of the average odds, removing the margin) gave Bali United about 41%, but their poor away record and Arema’s home solidity bring that figure down slightly while keeping the draw probability high. The conclusion is clear: Bali United Persisam are the most likely winner, but a draw is a very strong second outcome, and Arema’s chance is not negligible.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer these 1X2 odds: Arema Indonesia 3.55–3.60, Draw 2.40–2.50, Bali United Persisam 2.10–2.20. This pricing confirms the away side as the favorite. Considering the stats, the safer betting tip may be a double chance on Bali United or draw. Our match prediction: based on all available data, Bali United Persisam edge the win probability, but a stalemate looks very plausible when an in-form home team meets an attack-heavy side struggling on the road.