Arema Indonesia - Bhayangkara Surabaya United prediction 10 October 2026

The Arema Indonesia vs Bhayangkara Surabaya United prediction points to a home-favored Liga 1 clash on October 10, 2026, at 09:30. Based on odds, form, and head-to-head data, Arema Indonesia enters the match with a 42% win probability, while Bhayangkara Surabaya United sits at 25%, and the draw is 33%. Bookmakers also see the hosts as the more likely winner.

Team Form

Arema Indonesia’s last five results show two wins, two draws, and one loss. They drew 1-1 with Persik Kediri and 3-3 with PSM Makassar, beat Adhyaksa Farmel FC 4-0 and RANS Nusantara Cilegon United 2-0, then lost 3-1 to Persija Jakarta. Bhayangkara Surabaya United also recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five. They defeated Adhyaksa Farmel FC 2-0 and PSBS Biak Numfor 7-0, drew 2-2 with Dewa United Banten FC and 1-1 with Persebaya Surabaya, and lost 4-1 to Bali United Persisam. Both sides show similar recent consistency, but Arema’s home performances have been notably solid.

Head-to-Head Record

In 20 all-time meetings, Arema Indonesia has won 9, Bhayangkara Surabaya United 6, with 5 draws. The last five encounters are evenly split: Bhayangkara won 2-1 in March 2026, Arema won 2-1 in August 2025, a 0-0 draw in March 2024, Arema won 2-0 in September 2023, and Bhayangkara won 3-0 in April 2023. The head-to-head trend suggests no clear dominance, making this fixture unpredictable.

League Table Positions

Arema Indonesia sits 7th in the Liga 1 overall standings with 5 points from 3 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 8 goals scored, 4 conceded). Bhayangkara Surabaya United is 8th, also with 5 points (1 win, 2 draws, 5 goals for, 3 against). At home, Arema ranks 5th with 4 points from 2 games (1 win, 1 draw, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded). Bhayangkara’s away record shows 1 draw from 1 match, with 2 goals scored and 2 conceded. The hosts’ defensive strength at home gives them a slight edge.

Win Probability: Arema Indonesia or Bhayangkara Surabaya United?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for form, H2H, and home advantage, the win probabilities are: Arema Indonesia 42%, draw 33%, Bhayangkara Surabaya United 25%. The odds imply a home win chance of about 40%, but Arema’s strong home record (5 goals scored, 1 conceded) and Bhayangkara’s limited away sample lift the hosts’ likelihood. A draw remains a significant possibility given both teams’ recent results.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average pre-match odds from bookmakers show Arema Indonesia at 2.14, the draw at 2.49, and Bhayangkara Surabaya United at 3.31. These numbers confirm Arema as the favorite. Based on the stats, the most probable outcome is a home win, but the draw cannot be ruled out. A 1-0 or 2-1 victory for Arema Indonesia aligns with the data.