Argentina - Bolivia prediction 1 October 2026

The Argentina vs Bolivia prediction sees the world champions as overwhelming favorites. On October 1, 2026 at 01:00, Argentina host Bolivia in a Friendly International. Based on odds, head-to-head record and current form, Argentina has a win probability of around 80%, with a draw at 15% and a Bolivia victory at just 5%.

Team Form

Argentina are undefeated in their last five matches, recording two wins and three draws. Their most recent results include a 0–0 draw with Spain, a 2–1 win over England, and a 1–1 draw against Switzerland at the World Cup. While not flawless, they consistently avoid defeat.

Bolivia, by contrast, are in poor form with just one win and four losses in their last five outings. A 0–2 home defeat to Paraguay in late September was preceded by heavy losses to Algeria (0–4) and Scotland (0–4). The only positive was a 2–1 home win against Suriname back in March.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head gives Argentina a clear edge: five wins, no draws, and one Bolivia victory. The last meeting in October 2024 ended in a 6–0 Argentina rout. Before that, Argentina also recorded 3–0, 4–1 and 2–1 away wins. Bolivia’s sole success in the series shows the scale of the uphill task they face.

Win Probability: Argentina or Bolivia?

Converting the bookmaker odds (Argentina 1.09, draw 3.60, Bolivia 13.00) into fair probabilities gives Argentina a 72.1% chance, a draw 21.8%, and Bolivia 6.0%. However, these figures don’t fully capture the on-field dynamics. Argentina’s five-match unbeaten run and their dominance in head-to-head history (five wins in six) push the real win chance closer to 80%. The probability of a draw is therefore reduced to 15%, while Bolivia’s slim hopes stay at 5%. Those percentages sum to 100%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer around 1.08–1.09 for an Argentina win, making them the clear favorites. Draw odds vary from 3.35 to 3.70, and a Bolivia away win pays as high as 13.00 or more. Based on the stats and the home advantage, Argentina are expected to win comfortably. A clean sheet for the hosts is also likely given Bolivia’s recent goalscoring struggles.