Warta Poznan - Arka Gdynia prediction 12 September 2026

Warta Poznan vs Arka Gdynia prediction: The I Liga match will be played on Sep 12, 2026, at 13:30. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, the draw is the most likely outcome with a 37% probability.

Team Form

Warta Poznan's last five results show two wins and three losses (L, L, W, L, W). They have played all seven league matches away from home, so this will be their first home fixture. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 defeat at Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki on Sep 04.

Arka Gdynia have recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five (W, D, L, W, L). They come into this match after a 4-0 cup win at Resovia Rzeszow on Sep 02, but their league form has been inconsistent: a 1-1 home draw with Polonia Bytom and a 2-0 loss at Miedz Legnica.

Head-to-Head Record

In three previous meetings across all competitions, Arka Gdynia have won twice, with Warta Poznan winning once. The most recent clash took place on Apr 08, 2025, and ended in a 3-0 home victory for Arka Gdynia. The only match at Warta Poznan's ground was a friendly in January 2022, which Warta Poznan won 1-0.

League Table Positions

Arka Gdynia sit 5th in the I Liga table with 11 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). Warta Poznan are 8th with 9 points (3 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses), having played all their games away from home. The home table highlights Arka Gdynia's strong home record (2 wins, 2 draws, no losses), but their away form is weaker with 1 win and 2 losses. Warta Poznan are yet to play at home, making their true home strength uncertain.

Win Probability: Warta Poznan or Arka Gdynia?

Based on odds, form, head-to-head, and the home/away factor, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Warta Poznan win: 33%
• Draw: 37%
• Arka Gdynia win: 30%

The draw is the most probable outcome. Bookmakers' odds (2.45 home, 2.22 draw, 2.82 away) imply a tight contest, with the draw naturally standing out. Warta Poznan's lack of home data and Arka Gdynia's mixed away form make a stalemate the sensible pick.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: home win 2.45, draw 2.22, away win 2.82. Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely result. Our prediction aligns with the odds: the draw is the safest bet. However, if you need a winner, Warta Poznan's slight edge in probability (33% vs 30%) and the advantage of playing at home for the first time this season make them a narrow favorite to snatch victory.