SV Darmstadt 98 - Arminia Bielefeld prediction 11 September 2026

The SV Darmstadt 98 vs Arminia Bielefeld prediction for this Bundesliga 2 match on Sep 11, 2026, points to an away win. Arminia Bielefeld enters the Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor as the favorite with a 40% win probability, while the hosts have a 30% chance and the draw sits at 30%. The game kicks off at 16:30 in Darmstadt.

Team Form

SV Darmstadt 98 are struggling. Their last five results read L, L, W, L, D – only one win, a 2-1 DFB Pokal victory at Carl Zeiss Jena. In the league, they lost 3-0 at Kaiserslautern, 1-0 at home to Hannover 96, and 1-0 at Dynamo Dresden, with a 2-2 home draw against Holstein Kiel. They have scored just 2 goals in their last four Bundesliga 2 outings.

Arminia Bielefeld’s form is slightly better: D, L, D, W, L. They drew 2-2 at home with FC St. Pauli and 2-2 at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach in the cup, lost 4-1 at Nurnberg, beat Energie Cottbus 3-0 at home, and lost 2-1 at Karlsruher SC. The away side has been inconsistent but carries a goal threat.

Head-to-Head Record

History heavily favours Arminia Bielefeld. In 17 previous meetings, Bielefeld have won 13, Darmstadt just 1, with 3 draws. The most recent clash on Apr 4, 2026, ended 2-1 to Bielefeld. Before that, a 2-2 draw in Darmstadt (Nov 2025) and two Bielefeld wins in 2023 (3-1 and 3-1). Darmstadt’s last win over Bielefeld came outside the data shown.

League Table Positions

Arminia Bielefeld sit 10th in the Bundesliga 2 table with 3 points from 3 games (1W, 0D, 2L, goals 5:6). SV Darmstadt 98 are outside the top 12, indicating a poor start. In the home standings, Bielefeld are 6th (1 win from 1 home game), while Darmstadt are unranked in the top 8. Neither side features in the away top 8.

Win Probability: SV Darmstadt 98 or Arminia Bielefeld?

Based on odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• SV Darmstadt 98 win: 30%
• Draw: 30%
• Arminia Bielefeld win: 40%

Bookmakers’ average odds (home 2.60, draw 2.67, away 2.61) imply a nearly equal chance, but the massive H2H gap (13 wins for Bielefeld vs 1 for Darmstadt) and Darmstadt’s poor recent league form shift the balance toward the visitors. Arminia Bielefeld are the more likely winner, though a draw remains a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds from multiple bookmakers show a tight contest: home win around 2.40–2.74, draw 2.30–3.80, away win 2.48–2.75. The market sees no clear favourite. Our prediction: Arminia Bielefeld to win. Given the head-to-head dominance and slightly better form, the away side offers value. A low-scoring game is possible, with under 2.5 goals looking plausible based on Darmstadt’s recent attacking struggles.