Arsenal Tivat - Bokelj Kotor prediction 28 October 2026

The Arsenal Tivat vs Bokelj Kotor prediction for the 1 CFL match on Oct 28, 2026, points towards a competitive fixture. Based on the stats, league positions, and odds analysis, Bokelj Kotor enters as the favorite with a win probability of around 50%, while Arsenal Tivat has a 25% chance of winning, with the draw at 25%.

Team Form

Arsenal Tivat's recent form has been poor. Their last five matches in the 1 CFL show a sequence of D, D, L, D, L. They managed draws against Buducnost Podgorica (3-3 on Oct 24), Buducnost Podgorica (3-3 on Oct 22), and Decic Tuzi (0-0 on Oct 8), but lost to FK Mornar Bar (1-2) and Sutjeska (0-2). They are winless in their last five, struggling to secure victories.

Bokelj Kotor's last five results are W, L, D, D, W. They secured a 2-0 home win over Decic Tuzi and a 3-0 win over Mladost DG. However, they suffered a 4-0 away loss to Sutjeska, showing some inconsistency on the road. A cup draw with Buducnost Podgorica (1-1) and a goalless draw with Petrovac round out their mixed form.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Arsenal Tivat, with 14 wins to Bokelj Kotor's 6, and 9 draws historically. However, recent encounters paint a different picture. In the last five matches, Bokelj Kotor has dominated: a 0-0 draw on Aug 23, 2026, a 3-1 friendly win on Jul 8, 2026, a 3-0 win on May 16, 2026, and a 2-0 win on Nov 22, 2025. Arsenal Tivat's only recent win was a 1-0 home victory on Mar 15, 2026. The trend over the last two years clearly favors Bokelj Kotor.

League Table Positions

In the overall league table, Bokelj Kotor sits 5th with 18 points from 11 matches (5W, 3D, 3L). Arsenal Tivat is 10th with just 8 points from 11 matches (1W, 5D, 5L). The gap is significant. At home, Bokelj Kotor is ranked 1st, having won 4 and drawn 1, with a goal difference of 8:1. Arsenal Tivat's away form is ranked 5th, with 1 win and 4 draws from 6 matches, showing some resilience but few victories.

Win Probability: Arsenal Tivat or Bokelj Kotor?

By calculating inverse odds and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, we derive the core probabilities: Arsenal Tivat win ~28%, draw ~34%, Bokelj Kotor win ~38%. However, adjusting for current form (Arsenal Tivat winless in 5), head-to-head trend (Bokelj Kotor unbeaten in last 4 competitive matches), and league standings (10th vs 5th), we shift probabilities. Arsenal Tivat's slight home advantage is offset by Bokelj Kotor's superior record. Final assessment: Arsenal Tivat has a 25% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Bokelj Kotor has a 50% chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as competitive. The best available odds are for a draw at 3.10, with Arsenal Tivat win at 3.30 and Bokelj Kotor away win at 2.88. The variation in odds (some bookmakers have Bokelj Kotor as low as 1.60) reflects uncertainty but an overall lean towards the away side. Based on the stats, recent H2H dominance, and Arsenal Tivat's lack of wins, Bokelj Kotor is the more likely winner.