AS Roma - Cagliari prediction 27 October 2026

The AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction points to a strong home advantage at the Stadio Olimpico on October 27, 2026, in Serie A. AS Roma is the clear favorite with a 66% win probability, while Cagliari faces a tough challenge at just 13%. The bookmakers' odds and recent head-to-head record heavily support this outlook.

Team Form

AS Roma approaches this match with solid recent results, showing a form line of D, W, W, L, D in their last five outings. In their most recent Serie A match on Oct 24, they secured a 3-3 draw away to Napoli. Earlier home games saw them dominate, beating Slovan Bratislava 4-0 in the UEFA Champions League and Genoa 2-0 in the league. A narrow 3-4 loss to Real Madrid at home is the only blemish, alongside a 0-0 draw at Como 1907 on Oct 11. Overall, Roma remains unbeaten in the league with 5 wins and 3 draws.

Cagliari's recent form is mixed at L, L, D, W, W. They are coming off a 0-2 home defeat to Bologna on Oct 24 and a heavy 4-0 loss at Monza on Oct 19. However, before this dip, Cagliari showed resilience with a 1-1 home draw against Juventus and consecutive away wins at Udinese (1-0) and Atalanta (2-1). The visitors have been inconsistent, particularly in defense, conceding 6 goals in their last two matches.

Head-to-Head Record

AS Roma has dominated the recent meetings with Cagliari. In the last five head-to-head matches across all competitions, AS Roma has won four, with Cagliari winning just one. The most recent clash on Feb 9, 2026, ended in a 2-0 home victory for Roma. On Dec 7, 2025, Cagliari managed a 1-0 home win, but Roma quickly restored control with a 1-0 home win on Mar 16, 2025. A particularly emphatic result was Roma's 4-0 home win on Feb 5, 2024. Overall, AS Roma won 4 of the last 5 H2H matches, with no draws recorded.

League Table Positions

AS Roma sits 3rd in the Serie A table with 18 points from 8 matches, having scored 19 goals and conceded only 6. They remain unbeaten in the league. Cagliari is in 8th place with 13 points from 8 games, but with a goal difference of -3 after scoring just 6 and conceding 9. When looking at home and away splits, Roma has 10 points from 4 home games (3 wins, 1 draw), sitting 3rd in the home table. Cagliari's away form is surprisingly strong, ranked 3rd in the away table with 9 points from 4 trips (3 wins, 1 loss). This away resilience is Cagliari's key strength entering this fixture.

Win Probability: AS Roma or Cagliari?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, AS Roma has a 66% chance of winning, the draw is at 21%, and Cagliari has a 13% chance. This calculation is derived from the inverse of available odds, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted upwards for Roma due to their dominant H2H record (4 wins in last 5) and unbeaten league form. Cagliari's strong away record prevents their probability from dropping lower, but Roma's home strength and 19 goals scored to Cagliari's 6 in the league underline the gulf in quality.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see AS Roma as the strong favorite. The available 1X2 odds range from 1.30 to 1.70 for a home win, with the draw priced between 2.45 and 2.76, and an away win for Cagliari as high as 6.50 to 11.00. The average odds imply a very high likelihood of a Roma victory. Based on the stats, we predict a home win for AS Roma. The head-to-head history, current form, and table positions all point towards AS Roma extending their unbeaten Serie A run.