AS Roma - Genoa prediction 17 October 2026

The AS Roma vs Genoa prediction for Saturday, October 17, 2026, is in high demand as Serie A football returns to the iconic Stadio Olimpico in Roma. Kick‑off is set for 19:45 local time, and all signs point to a home win — with our analysis giving AS Roma a 73% chance of claiming all three points, a draw at 18%, and Genoa a slim 9% probability of an upset.

Team Form

AS Roma (last five matches):
Oct11: Como 0‑0 Roma (Serie A)— goalless draw away.
Sep19: Roma 2‑2 Inter Milan (Serie A)— fought back for a point.
Sep14: Torino 0‑2 Roma (Serie A)— convincing away win.
Sep10: Fenerbahce 1‑1 Roma (Champions League)— solid draw in Europe.
Sep5: Roma 2‑1 Atalanta (Serie A)— home win over a strong side.

That’s two wins and three draws, with Roma scoring in every match bar the Como blank. They remain unbeaten in all competitions this season — the only Serie A side yet to lose.

Genoa (last five matches):
Oct10: Genoa 2‑1 Fiorentina (Serie A)— home victory.
Oct2: Rapid Bucuresti 2‑0 Genoa (Friendly)— away loss to a modest European opponent.
Sep20: Parma 2‑1 Genoa (Serie A)— away defeat against a fellow mid‑table club.
Sep15: Genoa 1‑0 Sudtirol (Coppa Italia)— narrow home win vs lower‑league side.
Sep12: Genoa 1‑1 Frosinone (Serie A)— home draw.

The Griffins managed two home wins but were beaten twice on their travels, conceding two goals in each of those away losses. With only one point from their last two Serie A matches, Genoa’s form is inconsistent, especially away from the Luigi Ferraris.

Head‑to‑Head Record

In 23 previous meetings, AS Roma leads with 15 wins, 5 draws, and just 3 losses to Genoa. The last five encounters: Genoa 2‑1 Roma (Mar 2026), Roma 3‑1 Genoa (Dec 2025), Roma 3‑1 Genoa (Jan 2025), Genoa 4‑1 Roma (Sep 2023), Roma 1‑0 Genoa (Coppa Italia, Jan 2023). Roma has won three of those, including the last two at Stadio Olimpico by the same 3‑1 scoreline. Genoa did win at home in March 2026, but the overall H2H strongly favours the Giallorossi.

League Table Positions

AS Roma sits 3rd in the Serie A standings with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), just two points behind leaders Inter and Lazio. At home, they are also 3rd with 7 points from 3 games (2W, 1D). Away, despite playing one game fewer, they are 3rd as well, with 7 points and a perfect defensive record of 0 goals conceded on the road. Genoa, by contrast, does not appear in the top 12 of any table — indicating a low position with fewer than 6 points overall.

Win Probability: AS Roma or Genoa?

After analyzing bookmaker odds, recent form, and historical data, we assign the following win probabilities:

• AS Roma to win: 73%
• Draw: 18%
• Genoa to win: 9%

The calculation started with the inverse of the pre‑match 1X2 odds (1.40, 5.30, 9.40) from bookmakers, which gave a baseline of 70.8% / 18.7% / 10.5%. We then adjusted upward for Roma’s dominant home advantage, their unbeaten league and recent form, and Genoa’s absence from the top half of the table. Consequently, a home win is by far the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available pre‑match odds range from1.33 to1.40 for a Roma win, 2.40 to5.30 for the draw, and 6.00 to9.40 for a Genoa upset. Bookmakers clearly see AS Roma as the overwhelming favourite. Taking all factors into account — Roma’s solid defence, Genoa’s poor away form, and the historical head‑to‑head — our prediction is a comfortable home victory, with a correct score potentially mirroring the previous two 3‑1 results.