Chemal - ASC Gendrim prediction 26 October 2026

The Chemal vs ASC Gendrim prediction for the Mauritania Division 1 match on October 26, 2026, at 19:50 sees ASC Gendrim as the slight favorite with a 48% win probability, while the draw holds a 30% chance and Chemal 22%. This is a clash between two sides with contrasting recent form and an historically close head-to-head record.

Team Form

Chemal’s last five matches show a pattern of D, W, W, W, L. Their most recent game was a 0-0 home draw against ASC Police on Oct 12. Before that, they secured three straight wins: 1-0 at home to Tevragh-Zeine in the Cup on Jun 12, 1-0 at home to Pompier on May 25, and a 5-3 away victory at Inter Nouakchott on May 16. They then lost 3-4 at home to Nouakchott Kings on May 12. This form indicates a team capable of winning but with defensive vulnerabilities at home.

ASC Gendrim arrives with a stronger recent run of W, W, W, D, L. They won their last match 2-1 away at AS Douanes Nouakchott on Oct 11. Prior results include a 2-1 home win over ASC Police (May 25), a 1-0 away win at AS Douanes Nouakchott (May 19), a 1-1 home cup draw with AS Douanes Nouakchott (May 15), and a heavy 1-4 home loss to Ksar on May 9. Their ability to win away from home is a key factor here.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is tight, with ASC Gendrim holding a narrow 4-3 lead in wins from 7 meetings, with no draws. The most recent encounter was on Mar 9, 2026, where ASC Gendrim won 2-1 at home. The fixture before that, on Nov 19, 2025, saw ASC Gendrim win 4-3 away at Chemal. Chemal’s last home win against ASC Gendrim was a 1-0 result on Apr 14, 2025. Matches between these teams are typically high-scoring and competitive.

League Table Positions

In the Division 1 standings, ASC Gendrim sit 4th overall with 3 points from 1 match (1 win, 2 goals for, 1 against). Chemal are 8th with 1 point from 1 match (1 draw, 0 goals scored, 0 conceded). Looking at away form, ASC Gendrim are 3rd after a single away win. Chemal’s home form places them 6th after one home draw. It’s early in the season, but ASC Gendrim’s winning start gives them a marginal edge in the table.

Win Probability: Chemal or ASC Gendrim?

Based on the available data, the calculated win probabilities are: ASC Gendrim has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Chemal has a 22% chance. This calculation uses bookmaker odds as a base (home 3.10, draw 1.95, away 3.55 average), adjusting for the strong away form of ASC Gendrim and the historically tight, high-scoring head-to-head record favoring the away side. ASC Gendrim is more likely to win, but the draw is a significant possibility given Chemal’s home resilience.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for the match are: Chemal win at 3.10, draw at 1.95, and ASC Gendrim win at 3.50 to 3.60. The draw is priced as the most likely outcome by the market, reflecting how close this fixture is expected to be. Our prediction aligns with the data: ASC Gendrim holds a slight edge based on their current away form and recent success in this head-to-head, but Chemal’s home performances mean a close match is anticipated. Based on the stats, an away win or a draw are the most probable outcomes.